Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
000
FXUS64 KTSA 262328
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
628 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 258 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024
At mid afternoon a mid level trof axis was exiting Northeast
Oklahoma...noted by the cloud cover slowly moving off to the east
and northeast out of far Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas. Back to the west...another weak shortwave was making its
way toward the Southern Plains and expected to reach the
Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles overnight tonight. In response to these
features...the ongoing clouds will continue to exit this evening
while mid and high cloud cover increases from the west overnight.
Before the bulk of the additional cloud cover can reach the CWA
late tonight...light winds will help temps fall below freezing
across the northern half of the CWA with mid 30s common across the
southern half. Thus...have issued a Freeze Warning for Northeast
Oklahoma and far Northwest Arkansas from 3AM to 10AM Wednesday
morning. Conditions will be monitored this evening for any
expansion of the warning depending on the timing of the additional
clouds.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024
The shortwave is progged to move east southeast across the region
during the day Wednesday. The greater instability/moisture and
thus precip chances are forecast to remain along and south of the
Red River as the wave moves through. However...there remains a
slight chance of light rain developing with the mid/upper level
low across parts of Eastern Oklahoma during day. Any activity
development north of the Red River should weaken by Wednesday
evening as the mid/upper level trof axis moves through and exits
the region. Cloud cover should also taper off and exit from west
to east Wednesday night with another cool night for parts of
Northeast Oklahoma and far Northwest Arkansas reaching down to
near freezing.
Southerly winds return Thursday allowing for a warming trend to
develop through the upcoming weekend. Southerly winds increase
Thursday night and become gusty for Friday as surface low pressure
deepens lee of the Rocky Mountains and surface high pressure sits
over the Gulf Coast States. Warm temps and gusty winds will help
to elevate fire weather concerns Friday afternoon ahead of the
increasing low level moisture for the weekend. Winds look to
weaken slightly for the weekend as a frontal boundary sags
southward toward the CWA...stalls and then lifts northward into
Central Kansas. With the CWA south of the boundary...this will
allow for afternoon temps this weekend to climb into the 70s and
lower 80s.
The cold front is progged to drop back southeast into and through
the region early next week...at this time it looks to be Monday
night/Tuesday...as another low pressure system moves into the
Plains. There are model differences with the timing/details of
this wave and could potential not fully move out of the region
until the middle part of next week. Shower and thunderstorm
chances return ahead of the approaching cold front Sunday
night/Monday with the greater potential Monday into Tuesday.
Details will continue to be updated/determined with latest data.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Winds will be
light favoring the northwest this evening, then light northeast
tomorrow morning before becoming variable. Wind speeds should
mostly remain at or below 10 kts. Any lingering low clouds will
diminish tonight with just a few high clouds.
Mid level clouds will increase tomorrow afternoon over OK where a
few showers may develop in the late afternoon but confidence was
too low to include in the TAFs.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 30 57 34 70 / 0 10 10 0
FSM 34 61 38 70 / 0 10 10 0
MLC 32 59 36 71 / 0 20 10 0
BVO 26 56 29 69 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 28 58 31 67 / 0 0 10 0
BYV 30 56 33 66 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 31 58 34 69 / 0 10 10 0
MIO 27 56 32 66 / 0 0 0 0
F10 32 57 34 69 / 0 20 10 0
HHW 35 59 38 69 / 0 10 10 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 10 AM CDT Wednesday for OKZ054>071.
AR...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 10 AM CDT Wednesday for ARZ001-002-
010-011.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...06