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000
FXUS64 KTSA 151046
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
546 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Low cloudiness is expected to overspread the area early this
morning and persist for much of the day, especially with high
level cloudiness also streaming across the area. A few high based
showers may develop this afternoon across parts of southeast
Oklahoma and west central Arkansas, but any rainfall amounts will
remain light.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

A capping inversion is likely to greatly limit thunderstorm
development along the dry line to our west, and even if a few
storms develop, they will likely weaken before making it into our
area late this evening. The more likely scenario is for a
scattered to broken line of showers and thunderstorms to develop
late tonight near or just ahead of a Pacific cold front that will
be approaching the area. This activity will sweep quickly east
across our area late tonight and Tuesday morning, with at least a
limited severe weather potential.

Redevelopment Tuesday afternoon is most likely to be just east of
our area, but this will need to be closely monitored. Fire weather
concerns will ramp up Tuesday afternoon, especially to the north
and west of Tulsa where green-up has not been as significant. If
rainfall late tonight is heavier than expected, this may mitigate
the fire weather concerns to some degree. Lighter winds by
Wednesday will lessen fire weather concerns that day.

A strong cold front will move across the area Thursday afternoon
and evening bringing another chance for showers and thunderstorms,
some possibly severe. This front will stall just south of our area
Friday and Saturday, with shower and storm chances increasing to
its north, especially from late Friday through Saturday. The
greatest rain chances will likely remain across the southern half
of our forecast area during this time frame.

Dry weather will return by late this weekend into early next
week, with temperatures remaining below the seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

VFR conditions prevail across most of the area this morning
with some patchy fog across northwest Arkansas. MVFR conditions
are forecast to become a little more common later this morning
and into tonight. Scattered showers/storms are expected to
impact area sites later in the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  66  83  56 /  10  60  20   0
FSM   80  65  81  61 /  20  40  50  10
MLC   77  66  83  58 /  20  60  20   0
BVO   82  64  83  52 /  10  70  20   0
FYV   80  64  78  57 /  10  40  60  10
BYV   81  65  78  59 /  10  30  60  10
MKO   79  65  82  58 /  20  50  30   0
MIO   81  65  80  56 /  10  50  50   0
F10   79  65  82  57 /  20  60  20   0
HHW   76  64  80  63 /  20  40  30   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...10