427
FXUS64 KTSA 070847
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
347 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Ongoing early morning storms will spread east of the forecast area
near or soon after sunrise. The remainder of the day will be quiet
as weak sfc high pressure settles over the area. Rapid and
substantial moisture return commences overnight as flow responds
to the next approaching wave. The trend in placement for any early
morning storms has been more north of the local forecast area.
This will be monitored as any early day convection could quickly
become severe, however the trend in guidance has been more
northward.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

The strengthening warm frontal zone and deepening sfc low will be
near NE OK / NW AR early Wednesday and mark a zone of increasing
lift within a strongly unstable and weakly capped airmass. The
result will be early storm initiation in or near the forecast area
with a quick transition toward a severe weather threat. Storms
will expand eastward and southward along the advancing cold front
through Wednesday afternoon and evening with severe potential
increasing for areas southeast of Interstate 44. The veered low
level flow and advancing cold front may focus the higher tornado
threat further east of the local region, however big CAPE can do
big things and all hazards will be possible with large hail and
locally damaging winds the more apparent threats at this time.
Additionally, another round of locally heavy rainfall will again
raise flooding concerns.

And then a break from the recent active pattern. Flow aloft become
more northwesterly and sfc high pressure builds into the southern
Plains Friday into Saturday. Dry and mild weather conditions are
expected for several days. Thunderstorm chances return late in the
weekend into early next week.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024
TSRA had cleared KBVO and VFR elements are expected to prevail at
that site for the valid period. TSRA at KTUL/KRVS to end early
in the period, and may be followed with a brief period of MVFR
cigs. From there, VFR elements are expected to prevail for the
remainder of the period. More uncertainty to timing/duration of
convection at KMLC so will just add a tempo group for a few hours
from 07z-09z and will include a period of MVFR cigs through 15z.
VFR elements to prevail for the remainder of the period. Similar
time frame and like elements expected across the AR sites, though
tempo groups at KFSM will go an hour or so later. Expect VFR
elements to prevail after 15z at the AR sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  62  83  55 /  10  10  20   0
FSM   86  64  87  60 /  10  10  40  30
MLC   86  66  86  59 /  10  10  20  20
BVO   83  56  81  49 /  10  10  10   0
FYV   83  60  82  54 /  10  10  60  20
BYV   82  59  82  53 /  10  10  60  20
MKO   83  61  83  55 /  10  10  30  10
MIO   81  59  80  51 /  10  10  50  10
F10   83  62  85  55 /  10  10  20  10
HHW   86  66  85  62 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for OKZ062-063-065>067.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...23