Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 190726
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
326 AM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will track through this morning with
mainly snow, though mixed with rain south of the Twin Tiers. As
colder air rushes in late afternoon through evening, some snow
squalls are possible, especially in Central New York. Scattered
mixed snow and rain showers will persist into Friday, but
mostly sunny and dry weather is coming for this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
230 AM update...
A quick-hitting low pressure system will bring snow or mixed
rain/snow to the region this morning, followed by possible snow
squalls by late afternoon through evening. At least scattered
mixed snow/rain showers will linger into Friday.

Latest models have taken a last-second southward jog in track of
the low that will impact the region this morning. Precipitation
expectations and thermal profiles have responded accordingly;
more supportive of snow as type even into the Poconos. Lowest
elevations of Luzerne-Lackawanna PA/Sullivan County NY will
still have a tougher time getting snow but elsewhere a quick
light accumulation of snow is expected to zip through this
morning. Southern Tier-Southern Finger Lakes-Upper Susquehanna-
Catskills of NY, and Northern Tier- Poconos of PA will generally
range from 1-2 inches snow accumulation, with highest
elevations perhaps 2-3 inches especially Southwestern Catskills-
Northern Tier PA hilltops. Northern Finger Lakes-Mohawk Valley-
NY Thruway Corridor meanwhile will likely receive less than an
inch this morning. Little or no snow for lowest elevations of
Wyoming Valley/Delaware Valley in Northeast PA.

As precipitation becomes more spotty midday there will be a
more equal-opportunity mixing of rain/snow showers with no
accumulation, and in fact most of any new snow cover will tend
to melt thanks to the mid April sun angle. However, for that
same reason, diurnal surface heating will combine with cold air
advection aloft to steepen lapse rates considerably. This
resulting instability along with an upper level trough axis
swinging through the area late afternoon through evening, and
northwest flow picking up lake moisture, may result in
localized yet fairly intense snow squalls such as what recently
occurred on Tuesday afternoon. Coverage as usual will be
greater in Central NY, but some streamers could even cross into
Northeast PA at times.

Overall accumulations mid afternoon through tonight will only
amount from a dusting to 1-2 inches at highest elevations, but
the snow that does fall will come in bursts. After highs of mid
30s-lower 40s today, lows tonight will be mid 20s-lower 30s.

On Friday, northwest flow will be deep but moisture will start
to become shallower with time as upper trough gradually begins
to pull away. It will be another chilly breezy day with highs
in the upper 30s-mid 40s, but coverage of lake-enhanced
rain/snow showers will only be scattered and mainly in Central
NY-far northeast corner of PA. Additional snow accumulations
will be scant with quick melting.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
320 am update...
Cold cyclonic flow will persist into the weekend with available
deep moisture exiting to the east...but not before a few snow
showers/flurries brush portions of central NY Friday night and
early Saturday morning. Snow amounts will be very light if
anything at all.

Temperatures Friday night will be on the cool side with lows
bottoming out in the upper 20s and lower 30s.

High pressure and much drier air begins to move in during the
day Saturday but the cool, n/nwly flow will persist with highs
only reaching into the 40s close to 50 under mostly sunny skies
and light north winds.

A surface high settles over the region Saturday night with winds
going very light or calm. Air mass will be slightly warmer, but
strong raditional cooling under clear skies will allow
temperatures to fall back into the mid to upper 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
320 am update...
High pressure moves ever so slightly to the east on Sunday as a
re-enforcing upper ridge builds in overhead, along with a
slightly warmer air mass.

The pattern will remain quiet and warmer with high pressure
aloft dominating much of the Northeast. 850mb temperatures +4 to
+7 degC under mostly sunny skies during the day will allow
surface temps to climb into the upper 50s and lower to mid 60s
Monday and especially Tuesday. Overnight lows will drop back
into the upper 30s and lower 40s.

The next system will roll through the Great Lakes during the
middle of the week. There are some timing differences among the
model guidance, and it appears this system continues to slow
down as it approaches. So, even through cloud cover will likely
increase Tuesday night and Wednesday...rain showers may not
actually arrive across central NY/ne PA until later in the day
Wed. The latest ECMWF and CMC are much slower...almost 18 hrs
slower...than the GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A system will pass across the region this morning, with fuel
alternate restrictions becoming common and IFR visibility at
times from snow for KITH-KELM-KBGM and mixed rain/snow for KAVP.
Snow will be lighter towards KSYR-KRME so visibility
restrictions probably not as significant for those terminals.
Initially light and variable wind will become northerly behind
the snow this morning, with ceilings lifting to mainly higher
end MVFR late morning-mid afternoon. However, at least KSYR-
KRME-KITH-KBGM are likely to see lake-enhanced snow showers
develop late afternoon into evening as colder air rushes into
the region. Some of the snow showers could be rather squally
with IFR-or-worse visibilities. KELM and perhaps even KAVP could
also see brief snow showers. See TAFs for specifics on timing
of early snow/mix, and late snow showers, for this complicated
situation.

Outlook...

Late Thursday night to Friday night...Brief mostly minor
restrictions possible in scattered rain and snow showers.

Saturday through Monday...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...MDP



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