Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 211039
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
639 AM EDT Mon May 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture will remain high through next weekend with scattered
showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoons and evenings
each day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The region will remain centered between high pressure over the
western Atlantic and low pressure to our northwest today. This
pattern will support deep southerly flow over the forecast area.
Models indicate weak upper energy moving northwestward across
the area during the afternoon. Model PWAT values are lower
than yesterday at around 1.4 to 1.6 inches so expect a lower
heavy rain threat. Moderate instability is expected during the
afternoon with LI values around -2 to -4. Severe threat appears
low given weak shear. High resolution models show less coverage
of storms than yesterday, so have kept pops and QPF lower. High
temperatures are forecast in the lower to middle 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure off the southeastern coast will continue
to pump moisture into the region through mid week. Aloft, weak
low remains off to the west of the cwa.  The lack of a strong
atmospheric forcing mechanism should lead to diurnally driven
scattered convection each day.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
With weak upper low still off to the west of the area, a
southerly flow aloft will persist from the middle of the ween
and into the Memorial Day Weekend. Longer range models still
trying to indicate the potential for an area of low pressure to
develop somewhere in the Gulf late this week and into the
weekend. There is very little agreement in regards to any
potential track or intensity. The bottom line regardless of
the eventual solution is a continued wet pattern with near
normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The primary aviation concern this morning is the development of
stratus and fog. Restrictions have developed at fog prone
AGS/OGB this morning while other sites have remained VFR. Improvements
expected by 15z with heating and mixing taking place. Isolated
to scattered convection expected to develop during the
afternoon, so have included VCSH for now. Restrictions will be possible late
tonight/early Tuesday morning in fog/stratus due to abundant low
level moisture. Winds will remain generally light, less than 10
knots from a south to southeasterly direction.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Unsettled weather will continue
with periods of late night and morning IFR to MVFR ceilings and
fog and mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
as high moisture remains over the region.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$



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