Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 210408
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1208 AM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure east of the Maritimes will continue to move east
away from the region overnight. High pressure will slowly build
in from the west over the weekend and crest over the area early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12:08 am update: Satellite pictures and the midnight
observations indicate a partly to mostly cloudy sky across the
cwa. Northwest flow aloft will continue overnight around low
pressure which is currently along the Newfoundland coast. Radar
indicating a few weak returns, and an isolated rain or snow
shower is possible, but any showers will be very hit or miss and
likely will not last more than 15 minutes at any one spot. In
fact, in most areas it will not be more than a sprinkle or
flurry. Other than some minor adjustments based on the latest
and expected overnight conditions, no significant changes are
planned at this time.

Previous discussion...
Low pressure at the surface and aloft currently located over
Eastern Nova Scotia, will continue to move away towards the
northeast tonight. Showers and snow showers generated by these
systems are expected to dissipate tonight, however the region
will remain in the cyclonic flow behind this low so showers may
redevelop again Saturday. Will blend the Gfs and Nam.
Precipitation type is expected to be a function of diurnal
temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Breezy and msly cldy skies will cont into much of Sat ngt with
scattered sprinkles and isold rn/sn shwrs mainly in the eve,
then slow clrg from W to E across the FA late Sat ngt as sfc and
upper low pres move E from the Ern Maritimes into the open N
Atlc. Ovrngt lows will cont below avg.

This will leave msly sunny skies and breezy NW wind conditions
on Sun as sfc hi pres builds across the FA from the W with
slightly milder hi temps. Clr skies and less winds will allow
for some radiational cooling for spcly broad vly lctns Sun ngt,
resulting in one more chilly erly morn on Mon. Temps will then
rapidly rebound on Mon under sunny skies and lgt W winds to
slightly abv climo hi temps Mon aftn as strong upper ridging
builds ovr the FA from the SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mon ngt will feature clr skies and near calm winds, allowing for
one cool, albeit not quite as cool as Sun ngt, ovrngt low temps.
Tue will see a rapid warm-up of temps to springlike lower to mid
60s at low trrn lctns N of he immediate Downeast coast by mid
to late aftn under ptly to msly sunny skies and lgt SW winds.
Downeast coastal lctns will be cooler due to an aftn sea breeze.

Ptly cldy skies Tue ngt and Wed morn will give way to cldy skies
from SW to NE across the Rgn Wed aftn and advcg rnfl by Wed eve as
low pres from the great lks begins to apch. Hi temps Wed may be
inverted, meaning Nrn and inland Ern areas may be warmest due to
having at least filtered sunshine longest into the day. The rn
shield from this system will ovrsprd our Rgn Wed ngt into Thu
morn with sig rnfl amts arnd a half inch or so. Following the
exit of this first system by Thu aftn, the Rgn will remain in
broad SW flow alf with other s/wvs lifting SW to NE across the
FA Thu ngt and Fri with intermittent rn shwrs. Temps will cont
mild durg this tm frame, spcly ovrngt lows which will be held up
by cld cvr and Srly sfc winds.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions expected at all terminals tonight. May
see a brief MVFR cig at anytime tonight. NW winds will continue
overnight and become gusty once again late morning Sat.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Initially low VFR for the TAF sites Sat ngt
with pds of MVFR possible ovr Nrn TAF sites spcly KFVE. Otherwise...
clgs will lift and sct on Sun to become unlmtd VFR for all TAF
sites, contg into Wed morn. Clgs will then lower to MVFR from SW
to NE across the TAF sites Wed aftn with the onset of rn from
low pres advcg from the lower great lks.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Have used a 50/50 blend of the Nam and Gfs for
sustained winds. For Waves: Currently the primary wave system is
long period southerly swell 3-4 feet/11 seconds. This wave group
is expected to increase briefly this evening then subside
slowly late tonight and Saturday. The long period swell will
remain the primary wave system Saturday. An off-shore wind wave
system ( 1-2feet/4-5 seconds) is expect to develop Saturday and
combine with the longer period swell. Total Water Level: Surge
models continue to show a low bias so will adjust base tide
anomaly to +0.6 Tonight then slow reduce next few days.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: No hdlns xpctd ovr the waters, with winds
and wvs increasing durg the day Wed to near SCA winds/seas by
Wed ngt ahead of low pres apchg from the lower great lks. Kept
close to WW3/NWPS wv guidance for fcst wv hts. Fcst wv pds thru
Mon will have two spectra`s...the first, wind driven arnd 5
sec, and the second, a swell component arnd 10 sec, with shorter
wind driven pd dominating from Tue aftn onward.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
River rises will slow into the weekend with cool weather. A big
warm up is expected next week with highs in the 50s and 60s by
Tuesday. Some ice movement is still likely the next few days on
the northern rivers as much of the ice is rotting out and fairly
easy to move. Anytime ice is on the move there is the potential
for an ice jam, and localized flooding. A bigger flush of the
ice is expected next week with the warm weather, and this will
increase the chance of ice jams until all of the ice has been
flushed out of the rivers. The main concerns are on the northern
rivers such as the Aroostook, Saint John, and Allagash.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...CB/Farrar/Mignone
Short Term...VJN
Long Term...VJN
Aviation...CB/Farrar/Mignone/VJN
Marine...CB/Farrar/Mignone/VJN
Hydrology...CB



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