Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 231141
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
641 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for aviation discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR fog has developed at VCT and ALI this morning but should
dissipate by around 8am. Clouds have not filled in for everyone,
but MVFR cigs currently observed at LRD and VCT. Will also see
these clouds lift through the next few hours and by mid-morning
should see VFR conditions for all sites. Have included VCSH group
for CRP and VCT where a few showers will be possible. An isolated
thunderstorms can not be ruled out for VCT, but chances too small
to include in TAF at this time. Will add MVFR vis again tonight
for ALI/VCT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 422 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018/

SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...

We`ll start this Wednesday with fog across inland areas this
morning where winds have weakened. Visibilities less than 1 mile
at times will occur through around 8am when fog should begin to
dissipate. Additionally, isolated streamer showers will affect
the coastal bend and coastal plains, possibly aided by a meso
low/decayed MCV moving toward the coast.

The larger picture this morning shows an upper level shortwave
over East and Southeast Texas. This could help to enhance
shower/thunderstorm chances in the Victoria Crossroads this
afternoon, but will stick with just a 30 pop as moisture should be
limited. Will maintain a 20 pop through most of the coastal bend
as well. Thursday, will also see some streamer showers, but
without the shortwave in the vicinity will limit pops to only 20
in the northern coastal counties/Victoria area.

Otherwise, a rather quiet forecast with main jetstream continuing
to lift northward leaving us under a strong upper level ridge.
Temperatures will continue to be a few degrees above normal, in
the 90s for most of the region. A generally light to moderate
southeast surface flow can be expected.

LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...

Deterministic GFS/ECMWF predict an upper pattern characterized by a
developing upper low over the CNTRL Gulf of Mexico while a N-S upper
ridge axis remains nearly stationary over TX/CNTRL CONUS and an
upper low over the WRN CONUS. Hence, the development of an omega
pattern. Subsidence increases over the CWA/MSA during the Friday-
Sunday period (ECMWF deterministic) which explains a gradual
decrease in PWAT values over the CWA (GFS deterministic) to below
normal. The GFS/ECMWF differ slightly with respect to the
longitudinal position of the upper Gulf low. Will defer to the GFS
ensemble mean which slowly lifts the upper low NEWD from the NE Gulf
to the SERN CONUS during the Monday/Tuesday period. Expect the
lowering PWAT values/subsidence to preclude significant
precipitation over the CWA/MSA during the period. Hot conditions are
expected to develop, especially over the CNTRL/WRN CWA during the
period, yet maximum heat index values should remain below 105F.
Generally weak onshore flow over the MSA during the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    90  73  92  72  92  /  20  10  10  10  10
Victoria          90  70  92  70  93  /  30  10  20  10  10
Laredo            97  74  98  74  99  /  10  10   0   0   0
Alice             94  71  94  70  96  /  10  10  10   0  10
Rockport          88  76  89  75  88  /  20  10  20  10  10
Cotulla           96  72  97  72  98  /  10  10   0   0   0
Kingsville        93  72  94  72  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
Navy Corpus       87  77  87  76  88  /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION



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