Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 252142
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
Issued by National Weather Service ALBUQUERQUE NM
342 PM MDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Clearing tonight but patchy smoke from a fire in southeast Arizona
may drift over southwest New Mexico. A few high terrain mostly
dry showers or a short lived storm possible Thursday afternoon
before another backdoor front surges through the area Thursday
night, bringing stronger wind gusts along the slopes of the
Franklin, Hueco, and Organ Mountains into Friday morning. This
front won`t increase moisture much but an increase in mid level
moisture will bring better chances for showers and thunderstorms
by Saturday. Drier and breezier conditions will follow on Sunday
and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Backdoor cold front has blown through the region and although the
dewpoints hang tough in the 30s for the most part, LAPS indicates
the air mass remains rather stable this afternoon with only some
cumulus over the Gila higher terrain. Expect clouds to continue
clearing over the TX portion of the CWA tonight. Fire over se AZ
this afternoon looks to be spreading some smoke into sw NM so
added some patchy smoke to the wx grids for tonight.

A little more instability forecast for Thursday afternoon,
therefore can`t rule out a dry shower or brief storm with gusty
winds and little to no rain over the higher terrain.

Another backdoor front expected late Thursday afternoon/Thursday
night with gusty northeast to east winds. It may be a little drier
overall but the trend from Friday into Saturday is for return flow
to become established, as southerly winds increase along with mid
level moisture. This will allow for increasing chances for showers
and thunderstorms over the region, especially on Saturday/Saturday
night.

There will be drier southwest flow strengthening Sunday and
Monday, shunting out any moisture and chances for wetting
precipitation. Monday looks breezy to windy, but may be a bit
cooler than Sunday due to falling heights.

&&

AVIATION...Valid 25/12Z-26/12Z... VFR conds thru period. Back
door cold front moves west with N to NE winds behind it, between
10 to 20 kts and gusts to 30 kts with strongest winds on the
western slopes of area mountains during the morning hours. There
are low clouds behind the front in the Sacramento Mountains and
they should clear out during the late morning. After 18Z winds
become more S to SE and decrease to 5 to 15 kts thru the rest of
the forecast period.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire weather conditions will remain on hold until early
next week, possibly Monday, as strengthening southwest winds and
lower humidities dominate most of southern NM and far west TX,
where localized critical conditions are forecast on Monday
afternoon.

Otherwise Thursday will be a transition or recovery day with an
upper ridge overhead, before another backdoor cold front surges
from east to west over the area, bringing gusty northeast to east
winds overall. A few cloud buildups resulting in a dry shower or
storm are possible over the higher terrain Thursday afternoon in
advance of the front. The Gila will remain rather dry with low
humidities around 10 to 15 percent Thursday afternoon.

Potential for wetting precipitation increases Friday and moreso
Saturday as southerly low level winds combine with increasing mid
level moisture. Showers and thunderstorms will become more
numerous and widespread Saturday, but there will be could be some
dry lightning Friday.

Unfortunately, this will be followed by warm, dry, and breezy SW
winds Sunday and Monday, with at least localized critical fire
weather conditions develoing during Monday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 54  85  56  72 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           51  86  54  70 /   0   0  10   0
Las Cruces              50  82  56  71 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              52  81  53  73 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              39  58  36  54 /   0   0  20  20
Truth or Consequences   53  82  54  72 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             48  78  53  66 /   0   0  10  20
Deming                  50  84  57  72 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               54  85  60  75 /   0   0   0  10
West El Paso Metro      54  84  56  71 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               51  87  54  73 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            53  88  58  72 /   0   0  10   0
Loma Linda              48  80  49  68 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  53  87  57  72 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            52  84  56  71 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          51  82  54  73 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           51  82  56  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   51  83  57  74 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                51  85  59  72 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               51  83  53  73 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 45  70  39  62 /   0   0  20  20
Mescalero               44  69  41  62 /   0   0  20  20
Timberon                43  69  41  61 /   0   0  20  20
Winston                 48  75  48  67 /   0   0  10  20
Hillsboro               50  79  53  69 /   0   0  10  10
Spaceport               52  82  54  73 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            45  75  49  65 /   0   0  10  20
Hurley                  49  80  55  68 /   0   0  10  10
Cliff                   50  83  56  73 /   0   0  20  10
Mule Creek              51  80  55  72 /   0   0  10  10
Faywood                 49  79  54  68 /   0   0  10  10
Animas                  54  85  60  76 /   0   0   0  10
Hachita                 52  84  58  73 /   0   0   0  10
Antelope Wells          54  83  59  73 /   0   0  10  10
Cloverdale              53  80  57  73 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.

&&

$$

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