Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 202322
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
622 PM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

Forecast highlights focus around thunderstorm chances tonight
through Friday, shower/storm chances Monday- Tuesday, and up-and-
down temperatures the next several days.

Expecting scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to
impact the region this evening and overnight, persisting through
Friday. The culprits will be a slow-moving cold front, in concert
with a mid/upper level disturbance approaching from the west. The
combination of weak/modest instability and deep layer shear should
promote a handful of strong to marginally severe storms before
about 9 PM this evening, generally northwest of Lyons to Salina.
Additionally, given the deep fetch of Pacific tropical moisture,
pockets of heavy rain rates and localized flooding are possible
through the evening/night, as activity gradually spreads south
into the southern half of Kansas, although widespread flooding
concerns appear unlikely.

The slow-moving storm system trudging across the central/southern
Plains will support scattered to numerous showers/embedded
thunderstorms through Friday across southern Kansas. However, the
greatest threat for widespread heavy rain will be over Oklahoma.
Activity will exit far southern Kansas Friday night.

The influence of Canadian high pressure approaching from the
north along with mostly cloudy skies will support much cooler
temperatures Friday, with highs only reaching the 60s-70s. For
Saturday, despite full sunshine, low-level thickness values will
support highs only in the low-mid 70s. Increasing southerly flow
and associated mixing and atmospheric thickness will support a
warming trend Sunday with highs approaching 80 degrees...closer to
seasonal normals.

Kleinsasser

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

The next weather maker looks to arrive sometime Monday-Tuesday,
as model consensus progresses a strong cold front south across
Mid- America, supporting another round of showers/thunderstorms
Monday evening-Tuesday, along with a return to below normal
temperatures by Tuesday. Long-range model consensus supports below
normal temperatures persisting all the way through next weekend.

Kleinsasser

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 557 PM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

The main aviation concern for this forecast period will be
a strong cold front approaching central, south central, and
southeast Kansas from the east. As of 23z, thunderstorms have
developed across western and central Kansas along this frontal
boundary and will continue to move east into the vicinity of KRSL
and KGBD around 00z before arriving at KSLN shortly after. Main
concerns in these storms will be strong wind gusts in excess of
45-55kts possible with the initial development. Small hail will
also be possible.

The front is expected to continue moving southeast and become
fairly progressive in its movement across south central Kansas
before slowing in northern Oklahoma early tomorrow. As
showers/storms continue to move across the area, storm intensity
is expected to diminish. Once showers and storms end during the
day tomorrow, MVFR cigs and visibility cannot be ruled out for a
brief period, but then skies should clear and set up for a clear
sky day on Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    66  70  52  74 /  60  70  10   0
Hutchinson      64  70  48  74 /  80  40   0   0
Newton          62  69  48  73 /  80  50   0   0
ElDorado        64  69  50  73 /  70  70  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   67  71  54  74 /  60  70  20  10
Russell         59  71  46  74 /  90  10   0   0
Great Bend      60  70  47  74 /  80  20   0   0
Salina          63  70  47  74 /  80  20   0   0
McPherson       63  70  47  73 /  80  30   0   0
Coffeyville     69  74  57  73 /  50  70  40  20
Chanute         68  72  54  72 /  60  60  20  10
Iola            67  71  53  72 /  60  50  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    69  73  56  73 /  50  60  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...TAV


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