Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 250833
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
433 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
Under mostly cloudy skies and light west to northwest winds,
temperatures are in the mid to upper 70s along the Florida Keys.
Meanwhile, local radars are detecting a proliferation of showers
and thunderstorms on the nearshore and offshore waters south of
the island chain. Surface wise, a trough of low pressure is
aligned on the coastal waters south of Keys communities with a
broad ridge covering most of the Gulf of Mexico. On our marine
district, winds are mainly northwest ranging from 6 knots at
Pulaski Shoal Light to 13 knots at Alligator Reef Light.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
A surface trough on the Straits of Florida will move southeastward
before becoming stationary along the north coast of the
archipelago of Cuba on Thursday, with a weak pressure pattern
prevailing over the next several days. Meanwhile, a couple of mid
and upper level disturbances will help sharpen a long wave trough
over the Eastern United States and into the Sunshine State by
Friday. But until then, low level drier air along with a weak flow
will prompt only nickle pops in the grids for the next couple of
days. Thereafter, winds below 700 mb backing, the potential of the
surface trough lifting northward combined with subtle large scale
lift will prompt low chance pops to be kept beginning Friday.
Temperatures will be near normal with daytime highs in the lower
to mid 80s and overnight lows in the lower 70s with some cooler
temperatures in radiational prone areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Considerable uncertainty lies on the equatorward extent of the
last in a series of short wave troughs digging in the Southeast
United States early this weekend. With that, the close proximity
of a frontal boundary/trough combined with weak upglide and subtle
mid and upper level ascent will prompt low chance pops to be
retained for Saturday. Beyond that, the mid and upper level trough
will exit into the Western Atlantic Ocean which should allow some
drier air to filter in, hence, only isolated dime pops will be
kept for this period. High temperatures will average in the mid
80s with overnight lows averaging in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Away from any showers or thunderstorms on the coastal waters south
of the island chain early this morning, light to gentle winds will
prevail on all Keys coastal waters for the balance of this week
and into this weekend. Hence, no headlines or advisories will be
necessary.

&&

.AVIATION...
Today, VFR conditions will prevail at both the KEYW/KMTH Int`l
island terminals thru 24Z. A boundary will swing across the KEYW
terminal between 08-12Z accompanied by some showers, with brief MVFR
cigs and/vis possible. Light to gentle surface winds between
southwest and northwest will increase closer to 10 knots after 14 or
15Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No precipitation is anticipated in and around the Big Pine Key
area today through Thursday, with light mostly northwest winds of
around 10 mph today, before becoming light and variable. High
temperatures will climb into the lower to mid 80s with relative
humidity values dropping to near 50 percent this afternoon before
rising tonight. Relative humidity values will drop to near 50
percent again on Thursday afternoon with winds of less than 10 mph
expected.

&&

.CLIMATE...
In 2012, the daily record low temperature of 64 degrees was
recorded in Key West. Temperature records date back to 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West 82 72 82 73 / 20 - - -
Marathon 84 73 85 73 / 20 - - -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...APA
Aviation/Nowcasts....Futterman
Data Collection......99

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