Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 202053
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
353 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Saturday/...A shortwave upper ridge will
move eastward across the central Gulf Coast through Saturday. This
will allow for a slight increase in high temps Saturday, while
maintaining dry conditions. Meanwhile, southeasterly low level flow
will increase through the day as a cold front begins to approach
from the west. Moisture levels are expected to increase enough near
the coast for the possibility of a few light showers by the
afternoon. Lows tonight will range from the upper 40s and low 50s
inland to upper 50s along the coast. Highs on Saturday will climb
into the low to mid 70s. /13


.SHORT TERM /Saturday night Through Monday night/...An upper level
low over the south Plains pushes east into the lower Mississippi
River Valley and Mid South Saturday night into Sunday. Upper
level height falls ahead of this system, in conjunction with upper
diffluence associated with the left exit region of a jet max
rotating through the base of the trough, will serve to increase
deep-layer ascent along and ahead of an attendant surface front. A
quickly moistening warm sector ahead of this front should see
enough destabilization (~500 J/kg MLCAPE) to support showers and
thunderstorms, with the best potential for thunder coincident with
the greatest forcing and instability along the front and near the
coast. Veering deep layer wind profiles and effective bulk shear
magnitudes at or above 40 knots could allow any stronger cells to
become better organized and capable of producing severe weather.
Given the uncertainty in available instability, however, only a
marginal threat is in place at this time. Generally expecting
rainfall amounts of up to 2 inches with this system, with local
amounts up to 3 to 4 inches not out of the question. These totals
may not appear heavy at first glance, but it should be noted that
those who received significant rainfall with the previous system
(i.e., interior southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama) are
likely to be more vulnerable to flooding than normal, as this
additional rainfall only exacerbates the already elevated rivers
and streams.

The cold front pushes through Sunday night into early Monday as
the upper low weakens and pushes off to the east, eventually
settling over the southeastern states Monday and Monday night.
The passage of this front should mark the end of precip for most,
particularly near the coast. Farther inland, could see some light
showers continue throughout the day Monday in the wraparound
region of the surface low. /49


.LONG TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...The upper low stalls over
the southeastern states as another quick-hitting shortwave rotates
through the region to start the long term period. Lingering
wraparound moisture over inland and western portions of the area
should be enough to squeeze out some showers as this shortwave
passes through Tuesday.

The first in a series of troughs digs from central Canada
southeast into the upper Mississippi River Valley and Midwest on
Wednesday, helping to finally push that stalled upper system over
the southeastern states east and away from the area. As the former
trough continues to dig into the eastern CONUS, it pushes another
cold front southeast towards the Gulf coast. We see a bump in rain
chances along and ahead of that front Wednesday night before it
passes through and brings dry conditions Thursday. Dry weather
will be short lived, as the next in the series of upper troughs
digs into the upper Midwest Thursday night. This pushes yet
another front towards the area, with moisture quickly returning
and rain chances increasing Friday ahead of the front. /49

&&

.MARINE...A moderate easterly flow tonight will increase on Saturday
as a cold front approaches from the west. A moderate to sometimes
strong southeast to south flow develops Saturday night ahead of the
front. Winds become westerly in the wake of the front by Monday,
with a light to moderate west to northwest flow then continuing into
the middle part of mid next week. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      54  76  63  74  58  76  56  74 /   0  10  50  90  30  10  10  20
Pensacola   58  74  64  74  62  76  59  75 /   0  20  40  90  50  10  10  10
Destin      60  73  65  73  65  75  62  74 /   0  20  40  70  70  20  10  10
Evergreen   51  77  61  73  60  77  56  74 /   0  10  40 100  60  20  10  20
Waynesboro  48  76  59  72  56  73  54  72 /   0  10  50  90  40  20  10  30
Camden      49  75  59  71  59  75  55  73 /   0  10  50 100  60  40  20  20
Crestview   52  77  61  74  61  78  56  77 /   0  20  40  90  70  20  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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