Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
430 FXUS65 KREV 082139 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 239 PM PDT Wed May 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Breezy northeasterly winds will continue through the evening. A warming and drying trend transpires through the latter half of the week, with above average temperatures expected this weekend. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase early next week. && .DISCUSSION... A backdoor cold front arrived this morning, bringing with it cooler temperatures and breezy northeasterly winds across the region. Highs this afternoon will struggle to reach into the low 50s in northeast CA and the Sierra and low 60s in western NV. This northeasterly height gradient will generate gusty winds across Sierra ridges (60+ mph), which will also mix down into the Lake Tahoe Basin through tonight. As such, a Lake Wind Advisory is in effect from 5 PM to 5 AM PDT Thursday for Lake Tahoe. Low temperatures will slightly increase tonight into Thursday morning, bringing many valleys out of near-freezing temperatures. However, valleys across the northern Sierra south into the eastern Sierra will see near to below-freezing lows once again. Make sure to protect sensitive vegetation in these areas. Temperatures will increase into the weekend as the upper low associated with this morning`s backdoor cold front will begin to move eastward into the eastern Great Basin and Intermountain West. This will allow a ridge to build over the northeastern Pacific, bringing high temperatures into the 70s for western NV on Thursday, followed by highs into the mid-70s on Friday. By the weekend, high temperatures will jump into the 80s for western NV and 70s in the Sierra. Mainly dry conditions look to prevail across western NV into the weekend. However, there will be a slight chance for 10-15% isolated showers and thunderstorms Friday over the eastern Sierra and then increasing in coverage north into the northern Sierra and into northeast CA by Saturday afternoon/evening. For next week, ensemble guidance continues to show the upper-level ridge pushing east over the Intermountain West and the Rockies, with a weak upper-low passing over central-southern CA Monday into Tuesday. A more amplified upper-level ridge looks to move across the northeastern Pacific across the west by next Wednesday. High temperatures look to range between the low-70s to the mid-80s for the first half of next week. Low chances (15-25%) for isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening with similar chances Monday for the eastern Sierra and Mineral County Monday. Forecast confidence at this time is medium with model runs starting to come into better agreement. Tuesday and Wednesday at this time look to be mostly dry. -Johnston && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail for all TAF sites through the end of the week. Northeasterly winds will persist into the evening with breezes around 20-25 kts for all terminals. Easterly FL100 winds to 50 kts will increase chances for turbulence this evening into Thursday morning over and west of the Sierra. Some low-level wind shear may also be possible for KTRK and KTVL. Besides this, light winds can be expected each morning before typical afternoon breezes to 20 kts occur each afternoon and evening into the weekend. Temperatures will warm to above average into the weekend, with chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms over the Sierra beginning Friday and lasting into the weekend. Shower and thunderstorm coverage looks to increase areawide by early next week. However, chances at this time look to be around 10-20%. -Johnston && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Lake Wind Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday NVZ002. CA...Lake Wind Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday CAZ072. && $$