Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 240625
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
225 AM EDT Thu May 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure into Friday. Upper level short wave trough pulls
tropical system north out of the Gulf, to produce unsettled
weather this Memorial Day weekend and short work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 110 AM Thursday...

A high pressure system will slide across the area today and
tonight. This will generally provide dry weather, although
soundings indicate that there might be enough low level moisture
to pop an afternoon shower in southwestern VA.

Due to dry air aloft and the mixing height tapping that dry air
this afternoon, expect dewpoints to be on the lower side of
guidance. This combined with good radiation conditions tonight,
should allow temperatures toward the lower end of MOS guidance
for overnight lows.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 AM Thursday...

High pressure slides east on Friday. Moisture advection on
return flow combined with enough heating...may be enough to
to spark a few afternoon showers or thundershowers across
southern WV, northeast KY, and southwest VA. These should
subside during the evening with loss of heating. Regardless
whether an area of low pressure across the northern Gulf becomes
tropical in nature, the moisture from this feature will advect
northward into the region over the weekend. Expect scattered
showers/storms on a daily basis, primarily diurnal in nature.
With relatively light flow and increasing pwats, downpours will
increasingly become capable of enhancing localized flooding
concerns by Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 225 AM Thursday...

Low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico will slowly move into the
southern states, essentially becoming cutoff from the westerlies
early next week. This will keep the threat of scattered showers
and storms each day going, with localized flash flood concerns
each day amid high pwats and light flow.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 110 AM Thursday...

Outside of some early morning valley fog and a slight chance of
an afternoon shower in southwestern VA, expect VFR conditions
today and tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium with fog overnight, otherwise high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, density, and location of fog early
this morning could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 05/24/18
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
No widespread IFR expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...RPY


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