Extended Streamflow Guidance Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
000
FGUS64 KTUA 281530
ESGSHV
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
ARKANSAS-RED BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER, TULSA, OK
1028 AM CDT THU MAR 28 2024
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
Valid 03/28/2024 - 06/26/2024
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Red River
DEKT2 24.0 27.0 30.0 12 32 8 12 6 <5
INGA4 25.0 26.0 28.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
FLTA4 27.0 30.0 32.5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Glover River
GLOO2 16.0 19.0 22.0 24 30 14 16 7 7
:Little River
IDBO2 30.0 32.0 34.0 34 28 24 14 5 <5
HRGA4 27.0 28.5 30.0 45 20 35 14 24 8
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B TUA 0328 Z DH12 /DC202403281528/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT
.B1 /HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH/HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
: Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations
: Valid 03/28/2024 - 06/26/2024
:
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Red River
DEKT2 17.0/ 17.0/ 17.0/ 17.0/ 21.7/ 24.6/ 32.6
INGA4 7.1/ 7.1/ 7.1/ 8.4/ 11.7/ 15.5/ 24.4
FLTA4 11.1/ 11.1/ 11.1/ 11.9/ 15.9/ 20.3/ 23.2
:Glover River
GLOO2 5.3/ 6.0/ 7.3/ 13.0/ 15.8/ 20.2/ 23.3
:Little River
IDBO2 18.9/ 18.9/ 19.5/ 26.9/ 31.9/ 33.2/ 34.1
HRGA4 20.6/ 20.6/ 21.5/ 26.4/ 29.9/ 31.8/ 32.4
:Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued monthly
:throughout the year.
.END
$$