Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Northeast RFC

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER NORTON MA
540 PM EDT WED APR 11 2018

...FOR OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE USE ONLY...

SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. /8/

THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL OVER PORTIONS OF THE BUFFALO CREEKS...BLACK
RIVER BASIN AND WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK.

THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS INTERIOR MAINE AND
NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE NERFC AREA INCLUDING SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...MOST OF VERMONT...SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHERN
MAINE.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS IS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND NEW YORK STATE...THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS HAS PASSED FOR THIS SEASON.

...CLIMATE GUIDANCE...

BELOW NORMAL DAILY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES (-1 TO -6F) PREVAILED FROM
LATE MARCH THROUGH EARLY APRIL ACROSS MOST OF THE NERFC AREA.
THE GREATEST DEPARTURES OCCURRED ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND WESTERN CENTRAL AND INTERIOR EASTERN NEW YORK STATE.

BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION OCCURRED FROM LATE MARCH
THROUGH EARLY APRIL. PRECIPITATION TOTALS FROM MARCH 29TH THROUGH
APRIL 9TH RANGED FROM 0.75 INCH UP TO 2.00 INCHES. THE HIGHEST
TOTALS WERE OBSERVED IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AND EASTERN MAINE. THE
LOWEST TOTALS WERE FOUND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN FINGER LAKES
IN CENTRAL NEW YORK AND THE UPPER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY ALONG THE
NEW HAMPSHIRE VERMONT BORDER.

PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES SINCE JANUARY 1ST 2018 ARE ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK
STATE...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...EASTERN AND NORTHERN MAINE. THE
HIGHEST DEPARTURES OF +4 TO +5 INCHES ARE FOUND ACROSS BRISTOL AND
PROVIDENCE COUNTIES IN RHODE ISLAND...BRISTOL AND PLYMOUTH COUNTIES
IN MASSACHUSETTS...AND KNOX AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES IN MAINE.

GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL SNOW TOTALS WERE OBSERVED FROM
LATE MARCH TO EARLY APRIL ACROSS THE NERFC AREA. THE GREATEST
DEPARTURES ABOVE NORMAL WERE FOUND NEAR CARIBOU MAINE...THE NEW YORK
CITY METROPOLITAN AREA AND FROM HARTFORD TO WORCESTER.

THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO) HAS BEEN IN A NEUTRAL PHASE
THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. HOWEVER THE NAO PHASE IS FORECAST TO TURN
MORE NEGATIVE THE WEEK OF APRIL 16TH. THIS WILL FAVOR MORE OF A
BLOCKING PATTERN WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FILTERING IN
FROM CANADA ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

A WEAK LA NINA PATTERN REMAINS AT THIS TIME WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
OCEAN TEMPERATURES OBSERVED ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS USUALLY
FAVORS AN ACTIVE PACIFIC JET STREAM CARRYING MOISTURE AND ENERGY
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.

THUS WE EXPECT AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE ALONG WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 6 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK 17 - 25
APRIL 2018 GENERALLY AGREES WITH THE ASSESSMENT INDICATING CHANCES
FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ADVANCE FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE
NERFC AREA AROUND APRIL 16TH AND 17TH. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BRING SIGNIFICANT QPF. THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY
INDICATING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION TYPE
REMAINS IN SOME QUESTION...DEPENDENT ON LOW TRACK AND AVAILABLE COLD
AIR.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS...

SNOW DEPTHS AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS HAVE STEADILY DECREASED SINCE
MID MARCH ACROSS MOST OF NEW ENGLAND AND NEW YORK STATE. SNOW COVER
ENCOMPASSED ABOUT 60 PERCENT OF THE NERFC AREA AS OF 11 APRIL 2018.

...NEW YORK STATE...

SNOW DEPTHS AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS HAVE GENERALLY DECREASED
DURING LATE MARCH AND EARLY APRIL...BUT SOME POCKETS OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOWPACK REMAINED ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

LOOKING ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...CATSKILLS AND THE
TACONIC REGION...

THE GROUND IS BARE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. PATCHY LIGHT SNOW
COVER EXISTS ACROSS THE CATSKILL RANGE...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3
INCH DEPTHS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1000 FT. SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM NIL TO 0.25 INCH.

HEADING ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES INTO THE BUFFALO CREEKS...

THE GROUND IS BARE ACROSS MOST OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION WITH SOME
PATCHY LIGHT SNOW COVER ACROSS WOODED AREAS. SNOW COVER EXISTS SOUTH
AND WEST OF BUFFALO WITH DEPTHS MOSTLY 1 TO 3 INCHES. SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM NIL UP TO 0.30 INCH.

LOOKING AT THE BLACK RIVER BASIN AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW
YORK...

SNOW DEPTHS VARY FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES...BUT INCREASE TO 6 TO 12 INCHES
ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION. REDFIELD REPORTED A SNOW DEPTH OF 12
INCHES 11 APRIL 2018. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS GENERALLY RANGE FROM
0.10 INCH TO UNDER 1.00 INCH...EXCEPT 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE TUG
HILL REGION.

HEADING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NORTHERN NEW YORK...

THE GROUND IS BARE ACROSS MOST OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND MOST
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. SNOW DEPTHS INCREASE TO 2 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS REGION...EXCEPT 6 TO 10 INCHES AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE
1000 FT. LAKE PLACID REPORTED A 10 INCH SNOW DEPTH 11 APRIL 2018.
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM NIL ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...3
TO 5+ INCHES ACROSS THE HIGH PEAKS ABOVE 1000 FT. THE HIGHEST SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE FOUND ALONG THE WEST CANADA CREEK AT HINCKLEY
DAM AND THE SACANDAGA RIVER AT HOPE.

THESE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM BELOW NORMAL EXCEPT NEAR
NORMAL ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.

...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

THE GROUND IS BARE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. SNOW COVER IS CONFINED
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND DEEP WOODED AREAS. THIS INCLUDES THE
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHERN WORCESTER HILLS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS AND THE LITCHFIELD HILLS OF NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.
SNOW DEPTHS ACROSS THESE AREAS RANGE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES. SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS ARE MOSTLY NIL TO LESS THAN 0.50 INCH...EXCEPT
APPROACHING ONE INCH NEAR THE VERMONT BORDER.

...VERMONT...

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE MOSTLY NEAR NORMAL BUT RISE TO ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS THE EASTERN PEAKS.

BARE GROUND WITH SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW COVER EXISTS ACROSS THE LAKE
CHAMPLAIN REGION. SNOW DEPTHS ARE MOSTLY NIL UP TO A COUPLE OF
INCHES. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM NIL UP TO 0.25 INCH.

SNOW DEPTHS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT VARY FROM NIL TO 3 INCHES...6 TO 12
INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1000 FT. PERU ELEVATION 1650
FT REPORTED A SNOW DEPTH OF 12 INCHES AS OF 10 APRIL 2018. LANDGROVE
VERMONT ELEVATION 1400 FT SNOW DEPTH WAS 10 INCHES APRIL 2018. SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENTS GENERALLY RANGE FROM NIL TO LESS THAN 0.50 INCH
BUT INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE 1000 FT.

SNOW DEPTHS IN EASTERN VERMONT VARY FROM FROM NIL TO 3 INCHES...6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1000 FT...AND LOCALLY UP
TO 3 FEET ACROSS THE PEAKS. GROTON REPORTED A SNOW DEPTH OF 24
INCHES 10 APRIL 2018. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS GENERALLY RANGE FROM
NIL TO LESS THAN 0.50 INCH BUT INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE 1000
FT. LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ABOVE 6+ INCHES EXIST
ACROSS THE PEAKS.

...NEW HAMPSHIRE...

SNOW DEPTHS AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE MOSTLY NEAR NORMAL BUT
RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE PEAKS OF WHITE MOUNTAINS.

THE GROUND IS BARE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. SOME LIGHT PATCHY
SNOW COVER EXISTS ACROSS THE MONADNOCK REGION.

SNOW COVER INCREASES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT AND NEARING THE CANADIAN
BORDER. SNOW DEPTHS VARY FROM A TRACE TO 4 INCHES...6 TO 12 INCHES
ABOVE 1000 FT...AND LOCALLY 1 TO 3 FEET ACROSS THE PEAKS. RANDOLPH
NEW HAMPSHIRE REPORTED A SNOW DEPTH OF 10 INCHES 11 APRIL 2018. SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENTS IN NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES
BUT INCREASE TO 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE PEAKS.

...MAINE...

SNOW DEPTHS AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE MOSTLY NEAR NORMAL BUT
RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE.

THE GROUND IS BARE ACROSS MOST OF EAST COASTAL AND SOUTH COASTAL
MAINE. SNOW DEPTHS INCREASE TO 8 TO 16 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE
AND 18 TO 36 INCHES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE. THE DEEPEST SNOW IS
FOUND ACROSS AROOSTOOK COUNTY. WINTERVILLE REPORTED A SNOW DEPTH OF
37 INCHES 10 APRIL 2018.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE CLOSE TO NIL ACROSS EAST COASTAL AND
DOWNEAST MAINE. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES
ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MAINE INCREASE TO 6 TO 11 INCHES. THE HIGHEST SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS
ARE FOUND ALONG THE SAINT JOHN RIVER AT NINE MILE BRIDGE AND
DICKEY...BIG BLACK RIVER AT CLAYTON LAKE...SAINT FRANCIS RIVER AT
BRUNSWICK AND THE ALLAGASH RIVER...AROOSTOOK RIVER AT WASHBURN.

...SOIL MOISTURE AND GROUNDWATER CONDITIONS...

LOOKING AT RECENT SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES 10 APRIL 2018...

WETTER THAN NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES EXIST ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE AND IN WESTERN NEW YORK INCLUDING THE FINGER LAKES REGION.

DRIER THAN NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES EXIST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HUDSON VALLEY REGION FROM NEAR ALBANY TO SARATOGA SPRINGS.

NEAR NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE EXISTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NERFC AREA.

THE PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX (PDSI) CALCULATES SOIL MOISTURE
STATES FROM THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS TO SEVERAL WEEKS.

THE LATEST PDSI 07 APRIL 2018 SHOWED EXTREMELY MOIST ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK INCLUDING
THE BUFFALO CREEKS...THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND BLACK RIVER BASIN.

UNUSUALLY MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NEW YORK AND THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY OF VERMONT. UNUSUALLY MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WERE ALSO
FOUND ACROSS RHODE ISLAND AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

NEAR NORMAL ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
NERFC AREA.

TAKING A LOOK AT GROUNDWATER MONITORING WELLS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE
AND NEW ENGLAND COURTESY OF THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY
(USGS)...

IN NEW YORK STATE...GROUNDWATER LEVELS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR HAVE
DECLINED DEPENDING ON LOCATION.

IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK INCLUDING THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NEW
YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREAS...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION
SINCE MID MARCH AND THE LACK OF SNOW COVER FOR RECHARGE HAS ALLOWED
GROUNDWATER LEVELS TO EITHER REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR GRADUALLY
DECLINE. GROUNDWATER LEVELS VARY AND AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL THANKS TO
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION SO FAR THIS YEAR. THE AQUIFER GROUNDWATER
LEVELS ARE BELOW NORMAL ON LONG ISLAND.

SEVERAL REPORTING SITES INDICATED NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
MEDIAN GROUNDWATER LEVELS. HOWEVER BEAR MOUNTAIN AND TILSON
INDICATED MEDIAN GROUNDWATER LEVELS NEAR THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AS OF 10 APRIL 2018. SUNY ALBANY AND WOODBOURNE
INDICATED MEDIAN GROUNDWATER LEVELS BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 50TH
PERCENTILES. UPTON NEW YORK REPORTED SOME RECHARGE ALLOWING MEDIAN
GROUNDWATER LEVELS TO RISE WITHIN THE 10TH AND 25TH PERCENTILE
LEVELS.

HEADING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK INCLUDING THE FINGER
LAKES REGION AND THE BUFFALO AREA...NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION SINCE
MID MARCH AND RECHARGE FROM OCCASIONAL SNOW COVER HAS ALLOWED
GROUNDWATER LEVELS TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY. GROUNDWATER LEVELS
AVERAGE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL...EXCEPT NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS THE EASTERN FINGER LAKES.

BATAVIA AND RANSOMVILLE GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE WITHIN THE 75TH TO
90TH PERCENTILE OF MEDIAN LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. GAINESVILLE
IS NEAR ITS 75TH PERCENTILE LEVEL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ACROSS THE EASTERN FINGER LAKES...GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE NEARLY
STEADY OR ARE SLOWLY DECLINING DUE TO LACK OF SNOW COVER FOR
RECHARGE AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION SINCE MID MARCH.
MORAVIA REPORTED A GROUNDWATER LEVEL WITHIN ITS LOWEST MEDIAN TO
10TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ITHACA IS WITHIN THE 10TH TO
25TH PERCENTILE FOR MEDIAN GROUNDWATER LEVELS THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LOOKING AT THE BLACK RIVER BASIN...THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND THE MOHAWK VALLEY...GROUNDWATER LEVELS REMAIN NEARLY
STEADY DUE TO RECHARGE FROM SNOWMELT AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO
NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION SINCE MID MARCH. GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE
CURRENTLY AVERAGING NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL.

EXAMINING THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGIONS OF
NEW YORK...GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL.
GROUNDWATER LEVELS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR ARE GRADUALLY DECLINING
DUE TO LACK OF SNOW COVER FOR RECHARGE AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION SINCE MID MARCH. SEVERANCE NY GROUNDWATER LEVEL IS
WITHIN THE 10TH TO 25TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

GROUNDWATER LEVELS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME EXCEPTIONS OF BELOW NORMAL GROUNDWATER
LEVELS OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND FAR
SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

IN CONNECTICUT...GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE MOSTLY NORMAL TO ABOVE
NORMAL. GROUNDWATER LEVELS REMAIN WITHIN THE 75TH TO 90TH PERCENTILE
ACROSS LITCHFIELD COUNTY THANKS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION SO FAR
THIS YEAR AND RECHARGE FROM SNOWMELT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE STATE
GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE AVERAGING NEAR THE 50TH PERCENTILE LEVEL AND
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR ARE SLOWLY DECLINING DUE TO BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION SINCE MID MARCH. GREENWICH IS WITHIN ITS 10TH TO 25TH
PERCENTILE MEDIAN GROUNDWATER LEVEL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

IN RHODE ISLAND...GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL
THANKS TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION SO FAR THIS YEAR. HOWEVER
GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE BEGINNING TO DECREASE NOW DUE TO BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION SINCE MID MARCH. RICHMOND IS CURRENTLY REPORTING ITS
90TH PERCENTILE TO HIGHEST MEDIAN GROUNDWATER LEVEL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

IN MASSACHUSETTS...GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE MOSTLY NORMAL TO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THANKS TO MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION SO FAR THIS YEAR. GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY
STEADY OR SLOWLY DECLINING DUE TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION SINCE
MID MARCH. SPRINGFIELD AND MONTGOMERY ARE REPORTING 10TH TO 25TH
PERCENTILE MEDIAN GROUNDWATER LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
GROUNDWATER LEVELS INCREASE TO THE 75TH TO 90TH PERCENTILE LEVELS
HEADING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. CAPE COD AQUIFER
LOCATIONS ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING 90TH TO HIGHEST MEDIAN GROUNDWATER
LEVELS.

 IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

IN VERMONT...GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR
NORMAL. SOME RECHARGE IS OCCURRING AND IS STILL AVAILABLE DUE TO
LEFTOVER SNOWPACK PRIMARILY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

IN NEW HAMPSHIRE...GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TO
NEAR NORMAL. ADDITIONAL RECHARGE FROM SNOWMELT WILL HELP AUGMENT
THESE LEVELS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.

IN MAINE...GROUNDWATER LEVELS VARY FROM BELOW NORMAL ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN MAINE...BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL ACROSS WESTERN
MAINE...AND NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE.

ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE...PRECIPITATION TOTALS HAVE BEEN AVERAGING
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SO FAR THIS YEAR. IN ADDITION THE GROUND IS
BARE WITH NO SNOW COVER AVAILABLE FOR ADDITIONAL RECHARGE. SANFORD
MAINE IS REPORTING A GROUNDWATER LEVEL WITHIN THE 10TH PERCENTILE
MEDIAN LEVEL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ACROSS WESTERN MAINE...REMAINING SNOW COVER WILL ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL RECHARGE TO GROUNDWATER LEVELS.

ACROSS EASTERN MAINE...PRECIPITATION TOTALS HAVE BEEN AVERAGING
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE YEAR. THIS AND OCCASIONAL PAST RECHARGE FROM
SNOW COVER HAS ALLOWED GROUNDWATER LEVELS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
AMHERST AND CALAIS MAINE WERE REPORTING BETWEEN 90TH PERCENTILE AND
HIGHEST MEDIAN GROUNDWATER LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE...DEEP SNOW COVER WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
RECHARGE OF GROUNDWATER LEVELS.

...RESERVOIR LEVELS...

THE NEW YORK CITY WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM...COMPRISED OF 7 LARGE
RESERVOIRS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK STATE...WAS RUNNING AT 97.4
PERCENT CAPACITY AS OF 10 APRIL 2018. THIS WAS 0.1 PERCENT ABOVE
NORMAL.

IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

THE RESERVOIR LEVELS ALONG THE ANDROSCOGGIN RIVER WERE AVERAGING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON 09 APRIL 2018.

IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

THE SCITUATE RESERVOIR LEVEL IN SCITUATE RHODE ISLAND 11 APRIL 2018
WAS 284.60 FT WHICH WAS 0.50 FOOT ABOVE THE SPILLWAY AND 102.9
PERCENT OF CAPACITY.

THE QUABBIN RESERVOIR IN CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS WAS RUNNING 92.9
PERCENT OF CAPACITY APRIL 1 2018. THE WACHUSETT RESERVOIR IN CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS WAS RUNNING 91.2 PERCENT OF CAPACITY APRIL 1 2018.

IN CONNECTICUT THE CURRENT STATEWIDE RESERVOIR AVERAGE IS 93 PERCENT
WHICH IS 1.6 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL.

...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS...

RIVER FLOWS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND NEW ENGLAND ARE AVERAGING
BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL. MOST OF THE REGION HAS EXPERIENCED
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION SINCE MID MARCH AND THIS HAS ALLOWED MOST
RIVERS AND STREAMS TO GRADUALLY DECLINE. RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT HAS
HELPED MODIFY THE RETREAT IN STREAMFLOW LEVELS NEAR AREAS WITH
REMAINING SNOW COVER.

RIVER FLOWS IN EASTERN MAINE ARE AVERAGING NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

MOST RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE ICE FREE. THOSE RIVERS AND STREAMS WITH
REMAINING ICE ARE EXPERIENCING DECAYING ICE DUE TO AN INCREASING
APRIL SUN ANGLE.

IN NORTHERN MAINE...THE PISCATAQUIS...SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT AND
MATTAWAMKEAG RIVERS ARE NOW MOSTLY OPEN WITH JUST SOME SHORE ICE
REMAINING. RIVERS ARE STILL 90 PERCENT SNOW AND ICE COVERED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN BASINS INCLUDING THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE PENOBSCOT.
ICE THICKNESSES RANGE FROM 24 TO 30 INCHES ACROSS SOME OF THE FAR
NORTHERN MAINE RIVER BASINS.

NO ICE JAMS ARE IN PLACE AT THIS TIME. THE ICE SEASON IS OVER ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF NEW ENGLAND AND NEW YORK STATE.

...IN CONCLUSION...

BASED ON THE INFORMATION AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME...

THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE BUFFALO CREEKS...BLACK RIVER BASIN AND THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE REMAIN CONFINED ACROSS
THE TUG HILL REGION. HOWEVER LONG TERM ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS REMAIN
EXTREMELY MOIST. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION...
RAINFALL AND RUNOFF TO OCCUR WITH SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES POSSIBLE
AROUND THE APRIL 16TH TO 17TH TIMEFRAME. IN ADDITION AN ACTIVE
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.

THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
INTERIOR MAINE AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS REMAIN CONFINED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE AND THE GREEN AND WHITE MOUNTAINS OF
VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE EXTENDING TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN APRIL 16TH
AND 17TH. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF AND RIVER RISES TO
OCCUR. IN ADDITION AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS WITH CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WHICH
SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW FOR A MORE GRADUAL MELT OF REMAINING SNOW COVER.

THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW
YORK...MOST OF VERMONT...SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...SOUTHERN MAINE
AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE REMAIN ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF VERMONT. LITTLE OR NO SNOW IS FOUND ELSEWHERE. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY IN THE
FORM OF RAIN AROUND APRIL 16TH AND 17TH. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF AND RIVER RISES TO OCCUR DURING THAT TIME. IN
ADDITION AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF WEEKS WITH CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. GREENUP
IS JUST UNDERWAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BASINS...AND THIS WILL BEGIN TO
HELP WITH INCREASING ABSORPTION AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION OF STORED
MOISTURE LEVELS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS IS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE. THE INCREASING SUN ANGLE WILL ALLOW ICE TO CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY DECAY WITH TIME. IF WARMER AIR AND RAINFALL MATERIALIZE
WITH AN APPROACHING LOW SYSTEM AROUND APRIL 16TH AND 17TH...THERE IS
SOME RISK FOR BREAK UP ICE JAMS AND ICE JAM RELATED FLOODING TO
OCCUR ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND NEW YORK STATE...THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS HAS PASSED FOR THIS SEASON.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN RESULT IN
FLOODING AT ANY TIME OF YEAR...EVEN IN AREAS THAT HAVE LITTLE OR NO
SNOW ON THE GROUND.

A GRAPHIC DEPICTING THE FLOOD POTENTIAL ON A BASIN BY BASIN BASIS IS
AVAILABLE ON THE NERFC WEB SITE AT


        ***WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/NERFC/OPS/FP1_TODAY.JPG***

ALL IN LOWER CASE.

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK MAY BE ISSUED BY THE
NERFC THURSDAY 26 APRIL 2018...CONTINGENT UPON THE WEATHER AND
HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS AT THAT TIME.

END/STRAUSS
$$



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