Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FNUS74 KAMA 241606
FWSAMA

Spot Forecast for Incinerator Stack...Stinnett Fire
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1106 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Forecast is based on incident time of 1200 CDT on April 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (806) 335-1421, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Winds will switch around to the northeast and north at the burn
site around 2 pm. Winds will increase to around 15 mph this
evening. Some rain showers and possibly a thunderstorm may
affect the site after 10 pm.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........41 percent.
Surface winds.......Northeast winds 8 to 12 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 8 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......4500-6000 ft AGL increasing to 5500-7000 ft AGL
                    late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....East 6 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good to excellent (32500-60500 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 4 or or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......PCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10     10     10
Temp............67     69     69
RH..............46     43     42
20 ft wind......E 9    NE 8   N 10
20 ft wind gust.12     10     15
Surface wind....E 10   NE 9   N 12
Surface wnd gst.12     10     15
Mix hgt (kft)...4.5    6.0    7.0
Transp wind dir.S      SE     E
Transp wind spd.15     8      7
Haines index....4      3      3
VRate kt-ft/100059     42     42

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms likely.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 41.
Max humidity........90 percent.
Surface winds.......North winds 13 to 15 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 13 to 15 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......3500 ft AGL decreasing to 1500-2000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 21 to 28 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good to excellent (33000-63000 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY
Weather cov.....       LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........       LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
Chc of pcpn (%).10     70     70     70     70     70
Temp............64     57     52     48     46     44
RH..............49     60     70     75     81     85
20 ft wind......NE 14  NE 15  N 14   N 14   N 14   N 14
20 ft wind gust.20     23     21     20     20     20
Surface wind....NE 15  NE 17  N 16   N 15   N 15   N 15
Surface wnd gst.20     23     21     20     20     20
Mix hgt (kft)...3.5    2.0    2.0    1.5    1.5    1.5
Transp wind dir.NE     N      N      N      N      N
Transp wind spd.21     28     24     25     26     26
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3
VRate kt-ft/100063     48     42     33     35     35

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) then becoming
                    mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms likely early in the morning, then
                    chance of rain showers and slight chance of
                    thunderstorms in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 63.
Min humidity........34 percent.
Surface winds.......North winds 12 to 13 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 12 to 13 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    morning.
Mixing height.......1500-3000 ft AGL increasing to 4000 ft AGL late
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....North 20 to 28 mph decreasing to 13 to 18 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair to good (27000-48000 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 to 3 or or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......CLOUDY CLOUDY MCLDY  MCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY
Weather cov.....LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........LIKELY S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).70     40     40     40     10     10
Temp............42     41     43     49     55     61
RH..............90     89     78     61     48     38
20 ft wind......N 13   N 13   N 13   N 13   N 13   N 12
20 ft wind gust.18     18     18     18     18     16
Surface wind....N 14   N 14   N 14   N 14   N 14   N 13
Surface wnd gst.18     18     18     18     18     16
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5    1.5    1.5    2.0    2.5    3.0
Transp wind dir.N      N      N      N      N      N
Transp wind spd.28     26     22     20     16     13
Haines index....3      3      3      3      2      2
VRate kt-ft/100036     35     29     34     35     33

$$
Forecaster...Goehring
Requested by...Fire Chief
Type of request...HAZMAT
.TAG 1807646.0/AMA



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