Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FNUS72 KMHX 201213
FWSMHX

Spot Forecast for Cutover...Goose Creek State Park
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
813 AM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on April 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast, contact the National Weather
Service in Newport at (252)223-2328.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure will build in from the northwest today
and continue north of the area through the weekend. Slow moving
low pressure will impact the area early to mid next week.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Max temperature.....Around 60.
Min humidity........24 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......Max 5300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....North 10 to 15 mph.
Vent Rate...........Max 55774 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 1.
ADI.................Max 60.
Haines index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Sfc pressure........30.27 to 30.31 inHg.

TIME (EDT)         9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Weather cov........
Weather type.......
Tstm cov...........
Temp...............48  52  54  55  56  57  59  61  60
RH.................49  39  34  31  29  28  26  24  25
20 FT wind dir.....N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd.....7   9   10  10  9   8   8   8   7
20 FT wind gust....9   14  14  14  14  14  14  14  9
Mix hgt (kft)......2.0 2.6 3.2 3.8 4.4 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3
Transp wind dir....N   N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  N   N
Transp wind spd....17  17  16  14  13  10  10  10  10
LVORI..............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI................49  60  48  43  49  42  42  43  44
Haines index.......4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
VRate mph-ft/1000..35  45  52  53  56  52  53  54  55

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear.
Min temperature.....Around 41.
Max humidity........89 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......Min 300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....East 5 to 10 mph shifting to lighht northeast 1 to
                    3 mph early in the morning.
Vent Rate...........Min 345 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 4.
ADI.................Min 1.
Haines index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Sfc pressure........30.28 to 30.37 inHg.

TIME (EDT)         6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%)............0   1   1   1   0   0   1   1   1   1   1   1
Weather cov........
Weather type.......
Tstm cov...........
Temp...............59  57  56  53  50  48  46  45  44  43  42  41
RH.................27  31  34  41  50  58  65  68  73  80  86  89
20 FT wind dir.....N   N   N   NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   N   N
20 FT wind spd.....6   5   4   3   3   3   3   2   2   2   3   3
20 FT wind gust....        5   5   5   5   5               5   5
Mix hgt (kft)......4.8 4.3 3.8 2.6 1.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir....N   N   N   NE  E   E   E   SE  SE  E   NE  N
Transp wind spd....9   8   7   6   5   3   3   3   3   2   2   1
LVORI..............1   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   4   4
ADI................39  4   3   2   2   2   1   2   2   1   1   1
Haines index.......5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
VRate mph-ft/1000..44  35  26  15  7   1   1   1   1   1   1   0

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Max temperature.....Around 64.
Min humidity........34 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northeast 5 to 6 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......Max 5500 ft agl.
Transport winds.....North 3 to 8 mph.
Vent Rate...........Max 31509 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 4.
ADI.................Max 27.
Haines index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Sfc pressure........30.31 to 30.43 inHg.

TIME (EDT)         6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%)............1      2      2      3      4      7
Weather cov........
Weather type.......NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov...........
Temp...............41     45     54     60     63     62
RH.................79     70     48     37     34     35
20 ft wind.........N 3    N 3    N 4    N 4    N 4    NE 5
20 ft wind gust....5      5      5      5      5
Mix hgt (ft).......300    300    2000   3700   5400   5500
Transport wind.....N 1    NW 1   N 5    N 7    N 6    N 2
LVORI..............4      3      2      2      2      2
ADI................0      1      14     26     25     8
Haines index.......5      5      5      5      5      5
VRate mph-ft/1000..0      0      9      26     31     13

$$
Forecaster...Elardo
Requested by...Joe Martin
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1807157.0/MHX
.EMAIL joseph.martin@ncparks.gov



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