Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
338
FNUS73 KMQT 112043
FWSMQT
Spot Forecast for Black Spruce...USFS
National Weather Service Marquette MI
443 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 1600 EDT on May 11.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...North to northwest winds at around 10 mph with gusts
to around 15 mph will prevail for the rest of the afternoon at the
burn site. Winds will then diminish to near calm soon after sunset.
Expect RH to fall to near 30 percent as temperatures top out at
around 60. Scattered cumulus clouds will gradually thin out. The
next system approaching from the northwest may bring a few sprinkles
late evening, followed by a chance of showers overnight and
Sunday. A thunderstorm is possible on Sunday as well. However,
rainfall is likely to be light, at around one-tenth of an inch. Plan
on RH recovery to near 80 percent tonight. Look for southwest winds
at around 10 mph Sunday morning to become northwest 10 to 15 mph in
the afternoon. Gusts to 15 to 20 mph are expected at times. RH on
Sunday will fall to 35 to 40 percent late in the afternoon.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........59 at ignition...Max 60.
RH..................43 percent at ignition...Min 33 percent.
Dewpoint............33
33-foot winds.......Winds north at 10 mph at ignition...
otherwise north winds 9 to 10 mph.
20-foot winds.......North winds 7 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......7900 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise
7400-7900 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Excellent (1336) at ignition.
Max...excellent (1336.0).
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth at ignition...max 4.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.
Ceiling (kft).......7.0.
TIME (EDT) 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........36 29
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0
LAL.............1 1
Temp............59 60
Dewpoint........36 32
RH..............43 35
33 ft wind dir..N N
33 ft wind spd..10 10
20 ft wind dir..N N
20 ft wind spd..8 8
Wind gust.......16 16
Mix hgt (kft)...7.9 7.4
Haines index....4 4
VIndx kt-ft/100.134 119
Ceiling (kft)...7.0 7.0
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of
sprinkles late in the evening. Slight chance of
rain showers overnight, then chance of rain
showers after 3 am.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........Min 40.
RH..................Max 78 percent.
Dewpoint............33.
33-foot winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 9 mph early in the evening
becoming light, then becoming south 5 to 7 mph
after 3 am.
20-foot winds.......Northwest winds up to 7 mph early in the
evening becoming light, then becoming south up
to 6 mph after 3 am.
Mixing height.......5700-6800 ft AGL decreasing to 0-1400 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Good to excellent (494.0-946.0) decreasing to
poor to fair (0.0-295.0) in the late evening
and overnight.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
large plume dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.05 inches.
Ceiling (kft).......12 increasing to 19 early in the evening, then
decreasing to 7.9 late.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........26 23 21 35 49 64 67 71 75 78 81 84
Weather cov..... SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 20 20 30 40
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............60 59 56 53 49 45 44 43 43 44 44 44
Dewpoint........31 31 32 33 33 33 33 33 33 34 34 35
RH..............33 35 39 47 54 61 65 66 67 67 68 70
33 ft wind dir..NW NW NW SW SW SW SE SE SE S S S
33 ft wind spd..9 9 9 3 3 3 3 3 3 7 7 7
20 ft wind dir..NW NW NW SW SW SW SE SE SE S S S
20 ft wind spd..7 7 7 2 2 2 2 2 2 6 6 6
Wind gust.......13 13 13 6 6 6 7 7 7 13 13 13
Mix hgt (kft)...6.8 5.7 4.5 2.9 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Haines index....4 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3
VIndx kt-ft/100.95 69 49 30 14 3 0 0 3 4 6 7
Ceiling (kft)...12 20 19 16 13 9.0 8.3 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.1 7.9
.SUNDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
thunderstorms in the morning. Chance of rain
showers through the day. Chance of
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................1 until 0800, then 2 until 1400, then 3 until
1500, then 2 until 1700, then 1.
Temperature.........Max 73.
RH..................Min 38 percent.
Dewpoint............37 increasing to 47.
33-foot winds.......South winds 8 to 9 mph shifting to the west 10
to 12 mph in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms.
20-foot winds.......South winds 6 to 7 mph shifting to the west 8
to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......100-1600 ft AGL increasing to 5600-6600 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (37.0-327.0) increasing to
excellent (1199.0).
Haines Index........2 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
large plume dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.05 inches.
Ceiling (kft).......7.4 decreasing to 6.7 late in the afternoon,
then increasing to 7.9 late in the afternoon.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........82 76 60 52 52 42
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC CHANCE S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ S CHC S CHC S CHC CHANCE S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).50 30 20 20 30 20
LAL.............1 2 2 2 3 2
Temp............44 46 56 66 71 71
Dewpoint........36 39 43 46 48 47
RH..............75 77 62 48 44 43
33 ft wind......S 9 S 9 SW 9 W 12 W 12 NW 12
20 ft wind......S 7 S 7 SW 7 W 10 W 10 NW 10
Wind gust.......14 14 14 14 14 14
Mix hgt (ft)....200 300 800 2900 5600 6600
Haines index....3 2 3 3 4 5
VIndx kt-ft/100.5 6 18 57 107 132
Ceiling (kft)...7.6 7.4 8.3 7.7 6.7 7.4
$$
Forecaster...Rolfson
Requested by...Lisa Gowe
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413785.0/MQT
.DELDT 05/11/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL lisa.gowe@usda.gov