Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

672
FXUS63 KARX 240449 CCA
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1149 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

At 3 PM, a ridge of high pressure provided partly to mostly sunny
skies across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Temperatures were
around 60 along and north of Highway 10 and ranged from the mid
60s to lower 70s elsewhere. These temperatures are the warmest for
2018.

On Tuesday afternoon and early evening, A cold front will
move through the area. This front may produce a few showers in
central Wisconsin with its passage. Otherwise, a 5-7K band of
clouds will move through the region during the afternoon and
evening. Temperatures will warm into the 60s ahead of this front.
In the wake of this front, the winds will become north and
increase into the 10 to 20 mph range with wind gusts up to 25 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

On Wednesday and Wednesday night, high pressure will provide
mostly clear skies and light winds across the region. With 925 mb
temperatures ranging from 6 to 9C, high temperatures will warm
into the 50s.

On Thursday afternoon and evening, another Canadian cold front
will move through the region. The GFS continues to be the
strongest with this wave, so it generates the most precipitation
(up to a quarter inch) and the greatest instability (CAPES around
500 J/kg). If this model verified, we may see some isolated to
scattered storms to go along with the showers. Meanwhile, the
Canadian, NAM, and ECMWF have a positively tilted short wave
trough and as a result their synoptic forcing and moisture
transport is much less. This results in just scattered showers.
High temperatures will warm into the lower to mid 60s ahead of
this front.

On Friday afternoon, the models show that a short wave trough will
move southeast through the Great Lakes and northern and eastern
Wisconsin. The ECMWF is the farthest southwest with its wave, so
it produces scattered showers across Wisconsin.  With 925 mb
temperatures ranging from 6 to 12C, high temperatures will range
from the lower 50s to lower 60s.

For the weekend and early next week, the upper level flow will
turn to the southwest. This will initially bring near-normal
temperatures to the area for Saturday and above-normal
temperatures for Sunday and Monday with highs ranging the mid 60s
to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

VFR conditions expected through this TAF period. Winds will remain
light/variable the rest of tonight, before becoming northerly 5-8kts
Tue morning as a cold front slide south across the area. Gradient
tightens up a bit more Tue afternoon, with N-NW winds more in the 9-
13kt range, perhaps gusty at sites like KRST during the mid-late
afternoon hours. Moisture continues to look limited with the front,
but cannot rule out a few light -SHRA in the areas during the
mid/late afternoon hours. Given the small chance and lower
confidence in any -SHRA occurring, left any mention out of the tafs
at this point.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Minor flooding is possible along the Mississippi River at Wabasha,
Winona, and La Crosse and for the Yellow River at Necedah. See
the latest hydrological outlooks (ESF) for more information.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

It looks like La Crosse will reach 70F for the first
time in 2018. This will be the first time since October 21 2017
(73F). Typically, the first 70F reading in a calendar year occurs
on April 9th. While it is later than average, it is not among the
20 latest dates. The latest date was May 7th in 1961. During 2017,
it occurred on April 8th (77F). During 2016, it occurred on March
8th (72F). Finally, in 2015, it occurred on March 13th (71F). The
last time, we went this late into the year without getting to 70F
or higher was 2013 when it did not occur until April 26th.

Also, today will likely end the below-normal streak at Rochester
MN. This 25-day stretch which began on March 29th had an average
departure of 15 degrees below normal. This was the longest stretch
of below-normal temperatures since a 26-day stretch in 2002
(October 12 to November 6 - average departure of 9.4 degrees below
normal). The longest stretches were 39 days in 1936 (January 15-
February 22 - average departure of 23.6 degrees below normal) and in
1960 (February 17 to March 26 - average departure of 10.5 degrees
below normal).

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boyne
LONG TERM....Boyne
AVIATION.....RRS
HYDROLOGY....Boyne
CLIMATE......Boyne



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.