Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 212008
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
308 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

At 2 PM, a 1032 mb surface high continued to provide light winds
and dry weather across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. A band
of 700 to 500 mb frontogenesis was producing clouds south of
Interstate 94. Meanwhile, skies were mostly sunny to sunny across
the remainder of the region. Temperatures were in the mid and
upper 40s over the snow pack across southeast Minnesota and
northeast Iowa and in the 50s elsewhere.

As the 700-500 mb frontogenesis weakens tonight and Sunday
morning, the skies will gradually clear. Low temperatures will
range from the mid 20s to mid 30s. With more sunshine expected on
Sunday, high temperatures will be a bit warmer. They will range
from the mid 50s to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

With abundant sunshine and 925 mb temperatures around 12C, the
high temperatures on Monday will warm into the 60s. There may be
even be a few lower 70s in the river valleys if we happen to mix
a bit deeper in the afternoon.

For Tuesday, the GFS continues to produce some light rain during
the afternoon. Meanwhile, the ECMWF, Canadian, and NAM are showing
no phasing between a northern and southern stream system. As a
result, they keep the area dry. Started to trend the forecast dry
by holding onto slight chance precipitation probabilities over far
western portions of southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa and
north of Interstate 94 in Wisconsin. In the wake of this front,
colder air will spill back into the area. High temperatures on
Wednesday and Thursday will be in the 50s.

On Thursday afternoon and evening, another Canadian cold front
will move through the region. This lift and saturation looks much
better along and ahead of this front, so this looks to be our best
chance of rain during the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

VFR conditions anticipated over the next 24 hours as high pressure
remains in control. Some thicker mid/high clouds will work across
LSE and RST at times, but nothing lower than 8-10kft for the most
part. Will need to watch some small potential for fog development
later tonight across southern Minnesota near the surface ridge,
though at this point it appears we may see just enough lingering
clouds and some wind to prevent anything significant around RST.
Something to watch nonetheless.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Flood warnings are in effect for the Trempealeau River at Dodge
and the Kickapoo River at Viola, Readstown, and Gays Mills with
minor flooding expected late this weekend into next week. See the
latest flood statements for more information.

As the recent snow melts and runs off into area streams,
additional flooding will be possible, especially along the
Mississippi River at Wabasha with additional details in the
latest hydrologic statement.

&&

.CLIMATOLOGY...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

This April will go down in the record books as the coldest at both
La Crosse WI and Rochester MN. For this not to occur, La Crosse
would have an average temperature of 53 degrees over the last 10
days and Rochester would have to average 58.8 degrees. While the
high temperatures will likely average those values, the average
daily temperatures will not.

In La Crosse, this April will be the coldest surpassing the
previous record of 39.3F in 1874. This will be the first time that
a monthly cold record will be broken since December 1983.

In Rochester, this April will be the coldest surpassing the
previous record of 37.6F in 1950. This will be the first time
that a monthly cold record will be broken since September 1993.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boyne
LONG TERM...Boyne
AVIATION...Lawrence
HYDROLOGY...Boyne
CLIMATOLOGY...Boyne



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