Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 230046

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
746 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Issued at 745 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

The forecast was updated to account for the latest cloud trends.
We increased clouds for several more hours over far northern
Minnesota and over southwest half to third of the Northland. Drier
air will gradually work it`s way across the area causing the
clouds to diminish. There is still a concern some lake induced
clouds will develop along the North Shore down into far western
Lake Superior as the low level flow becomes more easterly tonight.
Delta-T values are favorable for some cloud and possible light
snow but the airmass is quite dry. The RAP continues to indicate
very dry air over the lake through the night and into Friday
morning. We`ll monitor through the night for any possible
cloud development.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Surface and upper level ridging will cover the forecast area
tonight and Friday. A mix of clouds and sun are affecting a large
portion of the region this afternoon. This is due to an upper
level vorticity maxima sliding overhead this afternoon. Look for
the clouds to dissipate later this evening as the vort max
departs. Clouds will be on the increase Friday afternoon ahead of
the system that will affect a portion of the Northland Friday
night and Saturday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Upper level ridging remains over the forecast area Friday evening.
However, an approaching upper long wave trof, with embedded
pieces of vorticity, will move into western Minnesota late Friday
night and linger Saturday morning. Meanwhile, its associated
surface low will be moving through Kansas Friday night and into
Missouri Saturday before dissolving. This combination will result
in some mixed precipitation to affect the western third of the
forecast area as early as late Friday afternoon through Saturday
morning. Expect a rain/snow mix initially, changing to all snow
overnight through Saturday morning before ending. The
precipitation may reach as far east as the I35 corridor from Moose
Lake to Rush City, before ending in all areas by Saturday
afternoon. The greatest likelihood for snow accumulation will
roughly be in the Brainerd Lakes region northwest to near Walker,
where 1 to 3 inches of snow is probable. The upper trof washes out
by Saturday afternoon allowing ridging to rebuild across the
region. The ridging prevails through Sunday. Sunday night through
Tuesday finds the region under the influence of a southwest flow
aloft as a long wave trof moves ashore on the West Coast, reaching
the western Great Lakes Tuesday. In response, a surface low
develops in the Four Corners and moves into the Texas panhandle
by Tuesday. An inverted trof from this low will reach the
Northland Sunday night and affect the area through Tuesday. Look
for another mixed precipitation event during this timeframe.
Current thinking is rain and snow, as is typical with Spring
systems. Will hold off on mentioning any amounts for now as
confidence is low.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 647 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

An area of high pressure over the region will provide VFR
conditions across most of the region tonight into Friday. The low
level flow will become easterly overnight and drier air will cause
clouds over far northern Minnesota and western portions of the
Northland to diminish overnight. The clouds over the Borderland
will still move south for a time this evening, reaching KHIB, but
will then diminish overnight.

A long fetch across Lake Superior will develop overnight as winds
veer but the RAP shows the low level airmass remains quite dry so
widespread lake induced clouds look unlikely at this time. Some
MVFR clouds off of Lake Superior will be possible though late
tonight and some flurries will be possible if they do develop.

Easterly winds will increase through the day Friday and forecast soundings
show mixing to at least 850MB will develop leading to gusty winds
by afternoon for much of the area.


DLH  12  35  20  35 /   0   0  10   0
INL  15  41  19  39 /   0   0  10   0
BRD  18  41  26  39 /   0  10  60  40
HYR  11  42  22  41 /   0   0  10   0
ASX   9  37  20  38 /   0   0   0   0


LS...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Friday to 10 PM CDT Saturday for

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Friday to 4 AM CDT Sunday for



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