Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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817
FXUS63 KDLH 210744
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
244 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Quiet and dry conditions continue during the short term. Winds
may be gusty on Sunday, especially in north-central Minnesota.

A blocked pattern aloft was in place early this morning with a
cutoff low over southeast Colorado with an upper-level ridge
farther north into the Canadian Prairies. Surface high pressure
was situated over the western Great Lakes and the Upper Midwest
and will slowly drift eastward during the weekend. The closed low
will push east into the Lower Mississippi River Valley on Sunday
as the ridge over the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies
flattens. Very dry conditions and abundant sunshine will result in
deep mixing both today and Sunday. Low-level winds will gradually
strengthen from the southwest Sunday afternoon ahead of an
approaching shortwave trough. Wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph are
possible over our northwestern zones during the afternoon thanks
to the deep mixing. Highs will top out in the middle 50s to middle
60s today, with a few upper 60s possible on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Sunday night finds the GFS as the only model generating any
precipitation with some upper level energy moving through
Minnesota. All models agree that an approaching cold front weakens
by the time it moves through south central Canada. Have ignored
the GFS and gone with a dry forecast. The GFS continues to
generate some precip Monday morning over the northern third of the
forecast area before going dry. Other models maintain the dry
forecast and will follow. What is left of the front moves into
northeast Minnesota with only a wind shift with passage. The GFS
is still the outlier Monday night, although it is beginning to get
some support from the GEM, with trying to bring some precip into
the region as an upper level wave moves through the Dakotas and
south central Canada, and into western Minnesota late. Used a
blended approach which led to pops over the western third of the
region. Enough cold air is brought into the area to generate a few
snow showers north of U.S. Highway 2. The GFS maintains the wet
forecast for Tuesday, the ECMWF is dry. There is some question on
the amount of moisture available as the upper trof passes by along
with the cold front. Kept the blended approach. Models get back
into agreement Tuesday night with upper level/surface ridging
covering the area through Wednesday evening. Late Wednesday night
through Thursday night finds a vigorous upper level trof swinging
through the forecast area. A cold front accompanies this trof and
brings much colder air with it. Look for a rain/snow mix late
Wednesday night through Thursday morning, changing to rain through
the rest of the day, diminishing from west to east with frontal
passage. A short wave follows behind late Thursday night and
Friday clipping the eastern third of the region. Some snow showers
are possible Thursday night, then mix with rain on Friday over
the eastern third of the region. Temps start above normal through
Monday, then cool to below normal temps Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

High pressure will bring quiet weather to the Northland TAF sites
throughout the period. With very dry air in place, we expect VFR
conditions to continue.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  57  28  61  36 /   0   0   0  10
INL  60  32  63  41 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  60  32  62  39 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  57  26  59  37 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  59  27  59  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Huyck
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...DAP



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