Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 260526
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1226 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

High pressure will shift south of us tonight, and there will be
an approaching cold front from the northwest. The increasing cloud
cover from the northwest and a steady light wind overnight will
bolster our overnight temperatures. Many areas should finally stay
above freezing, unlike recent nights, which only further help the
snow to continue melting.

The cold front will begin moving in after midnight. This front
will bring passing light rain, and maybe a little wet snow, as it
moves through northern and central Minnesota in the morning and
northwest Wisconsin in the afternoon. Most areas will get a few
hundredths of an inch of rain or less. Drier air will work its way
in the wake of the front, bringing a clearing skies and gusty
northwest winds. Expect widespread gusts of 15 to 25 mph. Highs
should range from the low to middle 50s, but upper 40s in the
Arrowhead.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

A fairly progressive pattern continues across North America
through the weekend and into next week. A low chance for
precipitation Thursday night across the MN Arrowhead, then dry and
becoming warm over the weekend into early next week. High
temperatures will start out in the 50s to low 60s Friday and
Saturday, then warm up to the 60s to mid 70s Sunday and Monday!
Precipitation chances return on Monday with a few thunderstorms
possible. It looks not as warm through the rest of the week but
temperatures will still remain on the mild side of normal.

On the synoptic scale a longwave mid-level trough extending from
an upper low near Hudson Bay will track across the Upper Great
Lakes Thursday night leading to a chance of precip (mainly snow)
across the MN Arrowhead into the south shore in northwest
Wisconsin. Recent guidance, including the ECMWF, has been trending
on the wet side matching what had been mainly the lone NAM
depicting stronger large- scale lift and more precip. Latest
forecast expands our chances for precipitation as well as
precip/snowfall amounts, though as the sun comes up Friday snow
will change to rain with light rain showers or sprinkles possible
into the day Friday.

Friday through Sunday a broad mid/upper level longwave ridge
builds across the Rockies and east into the Great Plains with a
broad area of high pressure building from southern Manitoba
southeast to the Midwest through the weekend. As the high pressure
builds further southeast, warm and moist southerly flow increases
across the Great Plains into the Upper Midwest Sunday into
Monday, with precipitable water values over one inch and 850mb
temps +10C to possibly even +15C on Monday, both of which are
values well into the 90th percentile of climatology for both MPX
and INL. This will lead to well above normal surface temperatures
with highs possibly approaching 80 at International Falls on
Monday. Rain chances return Monday/Tuesday as a warm front lifts
northeast across the region, then a cold front approaches from the
north towards mid-week. In the warm sector a few thunderstorms
are even possible late Monday into Tuesday with MUCAPE values
approaching 1000 j/kg.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Water vapor imagery showed an upper level trough moving through
Manitoba late this evening. This trough and a cold front will move
into the Northland later tonight then pass through during the day
Thursday. VFR conditions were occurring this evening but some MVFR
or low VFR ceilings are expected to develop along the frontal
boundary later tonight into Thursday. Some light rain and a possible
wintry mix will be possible as the front moves through. The chance
for rain is expected to be brief, generally a 1 to 3 hour period.
Colder air behind the front may lead to cumulus development Thursday
afternoon keeping clouds around longer, perhaps even some MVFR
ceilings. The wind will turn northwest behind the front and become
gusty due to good mixing.

Another potent shortwave will dive into the area late Thursday
evening and overnight bringing a chance for rain and snow, mainly
after 06Z Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  39  54  32  52 /   0  20  40  30
INL  39  50  32  48 /  40  10  40  20
BRD  39  55  36  58 /  10  20  10   0
HYR  35  56  30  55 /   0  30  30  30
ASX  31  54  29  47 /   0  30  40  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...Melde



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