Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 242013
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
313 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

Many things to talk about today, the first is a short wave
ejecting out of a trough coming across the Dakotas. This will tap
into a pool of instability in a weakly sheared environment. Some
storms have already kicked off from this feature, but will mainly
pose a lightning, heavy rain, and small hail threat. There is some
potential for short-lived severe storms, but so far they are
having trouble getting tall enough to get into the hail growth
regime, and are mainly collapsing upon themselves. As the cells
approach Lake Superior they should become more elevated in nature
as there is a strong capped layer around the lake and surrounding
area exacerbated by this mornings` convection.

The rich moisture stream has been causing a thick layer of fog in
and around Lake Superior that is causing a drastic weather effect
to occur. Temperature gradients are approaching a 40 degree
threshold between Buoy 45028 and Cloquet. So a generally cold,
cloudy/foggy miserable day in downtown Duluth while over the hill
folks are probably wishing they had air conditioning.

The upper trough approaches overnight and passes overhead on
Friday. Left best chances for PoPs up north closer to the
strongest forcing in the Euro, but models differ a bit on the
location of the vort max, so that lowers confidence a bit there.

Friday should be warmer than today. Enough instability lingers
for another round of storms to develop in the afternoon some of
which could be severe.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

The long term period stays quite active under zonal flow well
embedded in a warm air mass. Afternoon instability should be
enough to kick off convection most days, but the overall
atmosphere is weakly forced being primarily driven by short waves
and an inconsistent meandering sub-tropical jet. Have kept a
variety of low PoPs in the forecast with the main uncertainty in
the timing of features. Sunday is the one day that looks fairly
dry. Temperatures will remain well above normal through next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

The concern will be possibility of fog moving up the hill at DLH.
Vsbys are below 1/2 mile down by the lake but only scattered low
clouds at DLH. Will have a tempo group for an hour for MVFR fog.
Otherwise, conditions will be mainly VFR with VCTS at all sites
through Friday morning. If thunderstorms do occur, conditions
will drop to MVFR with some IFR conditions possible,


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  60  85  59  84 /  50  30  10  20
INL  61  84  57  80 /  40  30  30  20
BRD  63  87  59  89 /  40  10  10   0
HYR  65  85  58  88 /  60  50  20  20
ASX  62  85  57  79 /  60  50  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolfe
LONG TERM...Wolfe
AVIATION...Stewart


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