000
FXUS63 KDLH 150913
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
413 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low humidity today across most of the Northland creating
  elevated fire weather conditions. Near-critical fire weather
  conditions in spots Tuesday, mainly over portions of northwest
  Wisconsin into far northern Minnesota.

- An area of low pressure will bring rain chances to the
  Northland Tuesday into Wednesday with lower chances lingering
  Thursday. A light wintry mix will be possible in spots, mainly
  over the Arrowhead but little significant snowfall is
  expected.

- Total rainfall amounts have diminished again with this
  morning`s update. Forecast amounts range from a quarter inch
  to around one inch from Tuesday into Wednesday night. There is
  a 40 to 80 percent chance for amounts exceeding one inch for
  most except in north-central Minnesota where it`s lower. The
  higher chances are from the St. Croix River Valley into
  northwest Wisconsin.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 412 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Today and tonight...

Another day of low humidity is expected across most of the
Northland with values from from 18 to 28 percent. The wind will
be lighter than yesterday as a ridge of high pressure moves
over the Northland. Highs will be in the mid-fifties to mid-
sixties. There may be some light showers that affect west to
southwest portions of the area, from the Brainerd Lakes to
Hinckley to Walker. These showers will be in response to some
low to mid- level FGEN. Forecast soundings show plenty of low
level dry air and we only expect some light rainfall. The
showers may move north into parts of northern Minnesota this
evening before chances end.

Tuesday through Wednesday...

As the upper low seen on water vapor imagery this morning in
the southwest CONUS moves east today it will cause surface low
pressure to deepen with a 988-990mb low forecast in the western
NE/northeast CO area by 00Z Tuesday. The deterministic models
along with the ensemble members of the ECMWF all are in pretty
good agreement moving this low slowly east through Nebraska
toward far western IA by 00Z Wednesday then to southeast WI or
central Lake Michigan by 00Z Thursday. The low will deepen
Tuesday then weaken Tuesday night through Wednesday. PWAT values
will rise to 0.75-1.00 inches Tuesday/Tuesday night which is in
the 90th percentile but not too extreme. We`ve slowed the
progression of the rain on Tuesday due to the presence of drier
air out of the high well off to the northeast. Southern portions
of the Northland will see showers become widespread through the
afternoon. Chances will ramp up Tuesday night for all areas as
the low continues northeast. Instability is quite limited with
this system so the chances for thunderstorms have diminished and
the threat for heavy rainfall has also diminished. The chance
for 48 hour rainfall exceeding 1 inch Tuesday through Wednesday
night ranges from 40 to 80%, highest from the St. Croix River
Valley into northwest Wisconsin. Chances for exceeding 2" is
less than 10 percent over that same time. There may be some snow
in spots Tuesday night into Wednesday morning over mainly the
Arrowhead but little accumulation is expected.

Strong winds are still looking likely starting Tuesday and
diminishing through the day Wednesday. Easterly gusts of 30 to
45 mph are expected Tuesday afternoon, strongest around Lake
Superior. The strong wind will continue Tuesday night then
diminish through the day Wednesday.

Wednesday night through Friday...

The surface low will be well off to the east Thursday morning
and much colder air will be moving into the area Wednesday
night into Thursday night. 850MB temperatures will drop to -6 to
-12C by 12Z Friday. A broad upper trough will develop over the
region Thursday night into Friday. Lighter rain or snow chances
will exist Thursday through late week. Some light accumulations
are possible. Highs Thursday will be in the lower forties to
mid- fifties and only be in the forties Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 133 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

VFR conditions were occurring across the Northland and will
continue through the period. KBRD will have the best chance at
seeing occasional broken mid clouds and eventually a few showers.
We kept VCSH at KBRD starting at 18Z into the early Monday
evening. Winds will be at or less than 10 knots for most as a
ridge of high pressure moves in.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 412 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Winds will be at or less than 15 knots for most today starting
out northwest and becoming either southerly or easterly
depending on location.

Winds will increase tonight into Tuesday night due to a
strengthening area of low pressure moving into the Central
Plains. Easterly winds will be from 15 to 20 knots with higher
gusts by late tonight with them increasing further during the
day Tuesday into Tuesday night. Chances for gales increase to 70
to 90 percent across the nearshore waters by either Tuesday
afternoon or evening. We`ve issued a Gale Watch for most areas
from early Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday afternoon.
Small Craft Advisories will be needed before the Gale Watch
Tuesday morning and after it expires Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon
     for LSZ140>147-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Melde
AVIATION...Melde
MARINE...Melde