Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 180545
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1245 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Updated below for 06z Aviation Discussion.

UPDATE Issued at 833 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Even though high pressure was overhead, a northeast flow off of
Lake Superior is sending in clouds from off the lake. Clouds are
also on the increase from the West ahead of the system that will
move South of the region through Wednesday. Last several hours of
the short term hires models have pointed to a dry forecast on
Wednesday. After collaborating with neighboring offices, have
removed pops and weather mention on Wednesday. Made some other
minor changes as well as increasing cloud cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

A ridge of high pressure to the north should nudge a sharp vort
max to the south of the Northland heading into Wednesday. Some of
the ensemble guidance glides a little more QPF to the north into
our southern forecast area, but even those members largely keep
the precip shield along the MN/IA border. That is the main weather
maker in the short term. Precip type should be a mix of rain and
snow, but given the shallow nature of the moisture light drizzle
or flurries may be more likely. Either way, little to no
accumulation is expected.

Another item to mention is that models are having difficulty
resolving some of the wind gusts that are being reported at ob
sites. So, manually forced gusts into the range of observations
for this afternoon/evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Most of the period will have relatively quiet weather with
temperatures warming up to climo.

Beginning Wednesday night, high pressure builds into the region
bringing clearing skies and drier conditions. The warming trend
starts on Thursday with highs reaching the 50s in portions of the
CWA. Temperatures continue to rise with highs warming above climo
ranging from the upper 50s to low 60s by Sunday. Sunday night into
Tuesday, a cold front from a stacked low over Manitoba, Canada dips
down into northeastern Minnesota. Kept slight chance of rain/snow
with this frontal passage. Temperatures slightly decrease on Tuesday
after the front exits the area but remain around climo.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

High pressure will remain to the north through the period as a
storm tracks from the Central Plains into the Mid-Mississippi
Valley. KINL is expected to remain well north of any expected
impacts from this system and remain VFR through the period. Some
lower clouds continue to stream inland off Lake Superior ahead of
the system, affecting KDLH and KHYR. However, these lower CIGS are
still VFR. Lower CIGS will arrive from the west through the
overnight hours at KBRD, KHIB, KDLH and KHYR, bringing MVFR
conditions. These lower CIGS are expected to persist through the
afternoon on Wednesday before quickly clearing out around sunset,
bringing a return to VFR conditions for the end of the period.
There remains some uncertainty as to any possible precipitation in
the KBRD area as latest trends look to keep this activity to the
south of the terminal. There is also the potential for some lower
CIGS at KHYR that could approach IFR, but this potential looks
low.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  26  38  25  49 /   0   0   0   0
INL  24  45  24  52 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  28  41  26  51 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  24  37  24  50 /   0   0  10   0
ASX  26  35  25  48 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BJH/GSF
SHORT TERM...Wolfe
LONG TERM...Wolfe/KC
AVIATION...BJH


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