860
FXUS63 KDLH 271128
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
628 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue this morning
  before tapering off this afternoon.

- Brief lull in the action before another system enters from the
  south bring showers and a few thunderstorms. Rain chances will
  increase through Sunday morning with widespread rainfall
  across the region expected by the early evening hours. Second
  system departs Monday evening.

- Active weather continue with another system passing west to
  east on Tuesday once again brining rain and some
  thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 402 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Current conditions/Today:

Scattered showers and some embedded thunderstorms continue to impact
the Northland this morning as a low pressure moves across southern
MN. We have seen a few lightning flashes overnight as we still have
a small bubble of MUCAPE over the region. We will maintain this
instability through the mid morning hours. Thereafter,
embedded thunderstorm chances quickly taper off across the
region. However, as the Low pressure moves into NW WI we could
see some isolated storms in the afternoon hours. CAMs are not
overly excited about the potential for stronger storms with an
overall consensus of rain tapering off in the afternoon.

Second System Sunday/Monday:

There will be a brief lull in the action as another Colorado Low
gears up to make a run at the Great Lakes region later tonight.
Following a somewhat similar track as the previous low, we
expect precipitation to begin filtering in from the south Sunday
morning. Widespread rain showers will envelop the Northland by
the early evening hours. Thunderstorm chances increase a bit
Sunday night as the low moves into western WI. But similar to
the last system the amount of available instability to tap into
is very limited. Severe weather is not expected. Additionally,
as the low approaches the increased pressure gradient will lead
to some breezy east to northeast winds Sunday night through
Monday morning. Wind speeds have decreased a bit with this
forecast package but areas along the shore line (especially the
North Shore) could see some wind gusts upwards of 45 mph.

Lake Shore Flooding Potential Sunday/Monday:

One other consideration may be Lake Shore flooding for the Twin
Ports. Lake levels are currently at 602ft which is not quite
the height we typically associate with lake flooding but not
entirely out of the question. The prolonged northeasterly gales
are expected to cause wave height of 11-16 ft with occasional 20
ft. If gales can maintain there speeds for over 24 hrs we could
see the levels rise to the point of needing a Lake Flood
Advisory.

Third System Tuesday:

The system begins to occlude on Monday as rain chances begin to
diminish in the evening. However, the region is not quite done
with the active pattern. An upper level low moving along the
International Border will draw another system out of the
Northern Plains for Tuesday afternoon and evening. As the cold
front pushes across the region expect some rain and some
isolated thunderstorms once again.

Extended Forecast:

At the midweek point we see some significant divergence in model
guidance lower confidence. For now, we are carrying
intermittent PoPs of 20-40% as the general set up is a slow
moving upper level low across Ontario with a baroclinic zone
over the region. The main ingredient in question is if we have
enough moisture to trigger any precipitation as some on the
deterministic guidance show some pretty decent dry air through
period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 627 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Mixed bag of flight conditions across the Northland this morning as
a Colorado Low moves towards NW WI. Scattered rain showers and a few
thunderstorms will remain possible. CAMs suggest the best chance for
some isolated storms will be in the early periods of the forecast.
Winds will continually be shifting as the Low is expected to pass
through NW WI. Rain is expected to taper off this afternoon and
evening before another system enters for Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 402 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

A Colorado Low moving across southern MN and towards the Great
Lakes region today is bringing widespread rain showers with a
few embedded thunderstorms. This activity will decrease this
afternoon. Winds are currently breezy but will weaken and back
to out of the northwest this afternoon. However, another system
right on its heels will increase winds once again tonight.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible
Sunday as well as gales.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for
     LSZ121-140>143-146>148-150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for
     LSZ140>147-150.
     Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for
     LSZ144-145.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...Britt