Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 131450

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
950 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Issued at 950 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

No changes to the forecast other than to tweak cloud cover a bit
for cirrus coming down out of Canada. Patchy fog has ended across
the area and it should be quiet with temps again reaching the 30s
this afternoon.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Large scale troughing across the eastern US, and amplified troughing
upstream over the Rockies continues to maintain northern flow over
the Northern Plains this morning. Surface high pressure is
centered over eastern North Dakota and South Dakota.

Early this morning: Fog has developed just west of Devils Lake and
has struggled to spread eastward into the western parts of our
forecast area. Short range guidance still favors expansion eastward,
and additional development east of the Red River in Minnesota.
Current trends are not matching up with the more aggressive
coverage/timing depicted by models, lowering overall confidence in
our CWA. At the same time; surface high pressure, shallow
moisture, and light winds persist and fog expansion can`t be
ruled out. For now, fog coverage has been adjusted to reflect
potential trends. A Dense Fog Advisory is not currently
anticipated, but near term trends will continue to be monitored.

Today-Tonight: Rising heights aloft as ridging shifts eastward
and increasing WAA associated with developing westerly BL flow will
support near to above normal temperatures again today (warmest
favored in eastern locations near pine forests of MN). Peak WAA
occurs overnight, and low level winds may limit potential inversion
strength due to mixing. This should result in relatively mild
overnight lows in the teens or even 20s. Dry conditions are expected
during these periods, with passing clouds (mainly high clouds)
within flow aloft out of Canada.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Quiet weather continues in the forecast for much of the extended
period. A weak cold front is expected to pass through the region on
Wednesday bringing a shift to northerly winds by the afternoon with
a few clouds. Temperatures will remain seasonal during the mid to
late week period with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 30s and
overnight lows in the teens.

Model guidance has come into better agreement with the placement
and evolution of a shortwave trough during the Friday/Saturday
time frame with much of the precipitation associated with the wave
remaining south of the eastern ND/western MN region.

Guidance continues to show a chance for precipitation during the
Sunday/Monday time frame as a second short wave ejects over the
central Plains. However, model spread remains high during this
period so overall precip chances remain low.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Patchy fog cannot be ruled out this morning, however current
trends no longer support keeping a mention in TAFs and VFR
conditions are now favored for all terminals through the TAF
period. Prevailing winds should remain below 12kt through the TAF
period eventually shifting to the west as high pressure slides




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