Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 171802 AAA
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
102 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 102 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

No significant changes needed. Scattered mid to high clouds will
persist through the afternoon but don`t look for these to
significantly inhibit diurnal heating. Afternoon highs are on
track at this point. May see some isolated gusts up to 20 mph
early this afternoon due to mid day mixing, especially in portions
of northwest MN.

UPDATE Issued at 936 AM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Bumped up cloud cover just a bit this morning for some patches of
mid level clouds moving through. Otherwise will keep things pretty
close to what we had going. Thinking that northern Red River
Valley will be the warmest with no snow cover and highs should
push 50 in that area. Areas just east of the Red have been running
warmer than expected this morning, so bumped up highs a bit in
that area to the upper 40s and near 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Seeing some mid level echoes being picked up by the regional
radars, but nothing is reaching the ground. Only seeing some mid
level clouds. These clouds will push into the area today, but most
areas should see a fair amount of sun again, especially east of
the Red River Valley. Tried to show highs today being a little
warmer again, especially in the northern Red River Valley. Kept
highs a little cooler in the central Red River Valley and into
portions of west central Minnesota, which were cooler yesterday.
Still have a relatively dry east-northeast wind flow across the
FA, and models have been backing off on precipitation chances
tonight. Looking like any sort of pcpn will hold off until the day
Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Upper ridge over the region slides east over MN/IA. Latest model
guidance targeting southeast ND, the southern valley and portions of
west central MN for possibly of some light snow accumulation
although some areas may have a mix of light rain/drizzle early Wed
morning as mid-layers continue to look somewhat dry. Precip will
linger over southern areas through late Wed aftn with light QPF
amounts. Next ridge moves over the region by mid-day Thu and
majority of area should be dry for the end of the week through early
next week. Friday afternoon and evening will see temp rise begin to
accelerate and warm advection rain possible across southeastern ND
and west central MN Friday night.  Dry across the region for the
weekend with warmest temperatures of the period, generally in the
50s. A front moving across southern MB Sunday night does bring a
hint of some very light precip across Lake of the Woods...with minor
QPF amounts as main energy will be into wrn Ont.  A frontal boundary
then develops along SD/ND state line early in the week and brings a
chance for rain once again to the southern portions of the CWA.
Latest guidance shows precip pushing as far north as Valley City-
Fargo-Bemidji although confidence low this far out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Expect VFR conditions through this evening with scattered to
broken mid to high clouds. Gusts in 10 to 20 kt range possible
near BJI and DVL early this afternoon. MVFR to IFR cigs will be
possible along and south of a BAC to FAR to PKD line from late
tonight through Wed morning. These lower cigs may be associated
with scattered light snow as well, but confidence was too low to
include in FAR TAF at this time.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BP
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Speicher
AVIATION...BP


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