000
FXUS63 KFGF 242358
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
658 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical fire weather conditions with low RH this afternoon
  and again tomorrow

- Friday through the weekend: Greater than 50% chance for more
  than a half inch a of rain across the area. Amounts over 1"
  tied to isolated thunderstorm activity.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Satellite showing numerous thermal anomalies associated with
prescribed and agricultural related fires today, of which are
producing areas of light smoke. This along with higher cirrus
moving across the region will give the sky that hazy-filtered
sun look to end the afternoon.

Overall, no change in previous thoughts within the Discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Sunny skies prevail through the remainder of today with light winds
and low RH keeping near critical fire weather in place until RH
begins to climb with the collapse of diurnal heating this evening.
RH values as low as the upper 10s may continue to drop slightly as
we reach peak mixing in the next few hours by 4-5 pm but should
remain above 15 percent. The overall synoptic pattern shows ridging
over the eastern conus steering southwest flow aloft into our area
with an upper low ejecting into the northern plains by Friday
morning. It is the combination of this approaching low and the
exiting surface high tonight that is giving us an enhanced low level
wind field tomorrow. Warm air advection will keep us very warm
Thursday in the low to mid 70s for highs though increasing cloud
cover by the afternoon could limit mixing somewhat. Overall expect
the WAA to overcome this and realize max temps over 70 for most.
Sustained wind speeds while impressive are unlikely to reach wind
advisory criteria but the combination of winds in the 20-25 mph,
gusts of 30-35 mph, and RH of 30-40 percent could yield another day
of near critical fire weather conditions. Very unlikely to reach red
flag as RH is progged to bottom out on the lower 30s to isolated
upper 20s for only a few hours and winds wont be strong enough to
compensate (might relocate a few trash cans though).

As the upper low near thursday night (still located in eastern
CO/western NE/KS) WAA and deformation will allow for increasing
precip chances by the late evening though will likely take a few
hours of moistening before echos actually begin reaching the
surface. PWAT values of 0.6 to 0.9 for a sustained period should
allow for efficient warm rain process as widespread totals over
0.5" seem likely as all clusters show at least a 50% across the
forecast area by Sunday morning. Those higher totals nearing an inch
or greater will be tied to 1) the exact track of the low, and 2) any
MUCAPE that can be found to produce thunderstorms. A little more
confidence in the first condition currently with a track to our
southeast keeping the higher PWATs out of our area through any
enhanced pockets of 850/700mb WAA could be enough to generate some
MUCAPE that ensembles are not currently able to resolve thus
certainly not ruling out the  for isolated thunder and
some of those higher 1"+ totals to be realized. As this low escapes
northeast over the eastern US another low will track through the
southwest flow, though with less moisture available not expecting
quite as high rain totals.

The active pattern persists into next week with southwest flow and
and open feed to gulf moisture likely keeping us above average for
the period in terms of moisture and even temperature, a stark change
from the mostly dry conditions of the past few weeks and even
months.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 645 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

VFR conditions are forecast throughout the TAF period.

Light winds under 10 kt this evening will markedly increase
between 11Z-14Z as strong low level, southerly winds aloft move
over eastern ND into western MN. These south winds forecast to
be 17-27kt gusting 25-35kt (highest at GFK and FAR) will persist
through much of the day Thursday. Some brief gusts to 40kt are
possible (60%) at GFK and FAR, more likely to occur during the
afternoon hours. Low level wind shear is also forecast at DVL
between 10Z-13Z.

Winds will decrease some near and just after 00Z, but still
remain above 15kt.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJ
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...CJ