Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 131751
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1251 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

A few minor tweaks to temperatures, but no huge changes for the
mid-day update. Winds have stayed below advisory criteria so far,
but there will continue to be some good mixing this afternoon and
the pressure gradient will continue to tighten, so will keep the
headline going.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

Big winter storm system that moves into the Northern Plains later
today is the main forecast challenge. Not too much going on right
now, regional radars show some echoes over the western Dakotas,
with rain at Rapid City and snow at Bismarck. Pretty decent
moisture gradient across the FA, with a surface dew point of 9F
at Baudette and 28F at Gwinner. So there is drier air in southern
Canada once again. Models continue to show the primary impacts
from this winter storm staying just to the south of our FA. It
appears like there will be a really sharp line where there are
no impacts to huge impacts. This looks to be somewhere just to the
south or southeast of this FA. Expected snowfall amounts continue
to decrease across our southern FA, even more than the previous
model run. For that reason, it appears that winds will be the main
impact today, across the far southern FA. Will go ahead and issue
a wind advisory for the far southern FA for mainly the afternoon
into early evening. These winds should decrease out of advisory
criteria this evening, but will stay gusty tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

Gusty winds will continue into Saturday, with the far southern FA
remaining on the fringe of the snow. With minimal amounts of fresh
snow, Saturday highs should rise back above 32F.

Saturday night an upper low over SW quadrant IA begins to progress N
then E...with models beginning to diverge on placement of the upper
low by 18Z Sunday...the ECMWF being further north.  Low then moves
est into WI and over Lake Michigan by 12Z Monday.  At this time an
upper ridge moves over west cntrl Dakotas.  There will be a threat
of light snow in the far east SE on Saturday night as the low moves
northward into srn MN...and the threat ending with its eastward
progression.  ECMWF would impact SE zones more than the 00Z GFS.

A break in action from Sun through early Tue morning as the ridge
slides east into the Valley.  As SW flow aloft sets behind departing
ridge Tue morning, increasing chances for some light snow north of
Devils Lake.  Chances of rain mainly in the Valley and ern ND Wed
night as broad troughing of low pressure expands across
Dakotas...and ECMWF developing closed low over NE NB.

Another upper ridge moves into wrn Dakotas Wed night and will keep
the area dry for the end of the week.  Models do show daytime highs
rising into the upper 40s with the second ridge.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

Winds will be the main concern as the forecast area only gets some
cirrus and mid cloud moving in from the system to the south.
Conditions are VFR and will remain so throughout the period.
Northeast winds at 15 to 20 kts will gust above 25 at times this
afternoon. Winds will diminish slightly this evening, but will
still be mostly in the 12kt or higher range. Some slight shifting
of direction but mostly remaining from the northeast.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ049-052-053.

MN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ029-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Speicher
AVIATION...JR



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