Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 152354

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
654 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Issued at 652 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Cirrus spreading northeast but drying up as it moves into the very
dry airmass over NE ND and NW MN. Very dry airmass in place so
temps will fall oce again into the single digits and teens
overnight, warmest in the far south.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

As the quiet weather pattern continues, the main focus continues to
be on local variations in daytime highs and any fog potential. For
tonight and Friday, amplified ridging aloft and a dry airmass under
high pressure will build further into the Northern Plains. With
strong radiative effects from solar radiation and land cover being
the main forcing for local temperature variations in this pattern,
expect a large diurnal swing again tonight. Went slightly colder
than past forecasts with lows in the single digits to teens above
zero overnight. A deep dry layer from the lower levels to 300mb will
keep all but some drifting cirrus clouds at bay tonight. Despite
daytime snowmelt introducing some boundary layer moisture, this
significant dry layer and light east winds will likely inhibit fog
development overnight.

Expect more of the same in terms of temperatures and mostly sunny
skies for Friday, as an upper low cuts into the Central Plains and
holds quiet weather and high pressure in the Northern Plains.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

The weekend continues to be under the influence of an upper level
ridge before finally beginning to flatten out Sunday night, allowing
an upper level shortwave associated with the northern stream to drop
into the northern tier an upper low moves across the
central plains.  An inverted trough associated with the central
plains sfc low will interact with the upper wave, as evident on
modeled H300-H500 Q-vector convergence, early in the week, giving
our CWA the next chance for precipitation.  Models continue to vary
on placement of the last night`s runs targeted areas west of
the valley and today`s models are hinting at the northern valley
receiving snowfall that may create the greatest impacts on Monday
and Tuesday.  The mid part of the week and beyond sees tranquil
weather return as the next high amplitude ridge sets up by 00Z


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Thin cirrus to clear across the area thru Friday. Winds northeast
to east 5 to 13 kts.




LONG TERM...Speicher
AVIATION...Riddle is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.