000
FXUS63 KFGF 191201
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
701 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous snow showers today into this evening.
  Brief reductions to below 1 mile visibility at times. Highest
  coverage in northwest Minnesota.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 656 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Webcams at sunrise is showing a light accumulation of snow in
the far northern Red River valley and thru far NW MN from
Pembina and Drayton to near Bemidji and north. Was able to look
up CYWG and CYBR in Manitoba and their obs and light snow in
their area and per radar scattered light snow thru southern
Sask, Manitoba into NW Ontario and north central ND. So idea of
on/off snow showers today, esp north half, is looking good.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

500 mb low moving slowly east into NW Ontario early this
morning. Short wave trough, vort lobe, extends WSW into southern
Saskatchewan at 07z. This vort lobe/short wave trough will move
into the Red River valley this aftn. 500 mb temps rise a couple
degrees from Thursday, but enough lift with this short wave
trough to generate scattered snow showers, with numerous snow
showers in NW MN into the evening. Highs today above freezing
all areas, but any brief heavy snow showers will bring
visibility reductions to less than 1 mile and a quick
accumulation. Most likely area for this seems to be Pembina area
east to Warroad and south to Grygla / Bagley MN area.

Winday today though winds aloft a tad less than on Thursday.
Coord with BIS and no wind advisory today but BUFKIT soundings
suggest wind gusts 33-35 kts (40 mph) and sustained winds
around 25 mph.

Based on coord with neighbors went with coverage wording and
expanded pops to include all areas into the evening.

Clearing will work into E ND late tonight, with clearing
progressing east on Saturday. Drier 850 mb airmass moves in
which should lead to a mostly sunny day. Though potential for
daytime CU is there as temps reach upper 40s to low 50s. Breezy
still with NW winds 15-25 mph.

High pressure axis slides east over the area Sunday but center
is well south. So still a 10 kt wind from the west turning
southwest or south late. Warmer with highs mid 50s to low 60s
and should be plenty of sun.

500 mb pattern heading into next week shows overall a westerly
flow but within that flow are several 500 mb short waves. One
moves into Alberta Sunday and then moves east-southeast around a
trough over Quebec and northeast Ontario into the Dakotas Monday
night. This system will bring a good chance for rain showers to
the area Monday into Tuesday. Rain amounts look light, with only
a 20 percent chance of more than 0.25 inch in a 24 hour period
12z Mon-12z Tue.

Another short wave trough moves into the western US and western
Canada late next week bringing additional rain chances days next
Thu-Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 656 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Ceilings today into this evening will be in the MVFR to lower
end VFR range, mostly in the 2000 to 5000 ft agl range. Vsbys
will likely end up being variable, P6SM predominate but down to
2/3SM in -sn in some locations briefly.   WNW winds 15-30 kts.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle