Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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720
FXUS63 KFGF 181753
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1253 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

A scattered and weak line of showers has developed down the valley
late this morning into the noon hour as SFC cold front continues
to sag to the south and east. Frontal position extends from near
Lisbon to just north of Fargo to the Waskisk area in the east and
separates the warm and cold air. Devils Lake basin and northern
valley in the low to mid 40s with 70s on the warm side, example of
45 at GFK and 75 in Fargo this hour. As the SFC low lifts
northeast cooler air will wrap around the backside this afternoon
and the front will push through SE ND and into west central MN.
This occurs lifts in front of the SFC low will continue to
produce scattered showers and possibly embedded thunder across
west central and NW MN.


UPDATE Issued at 950 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018

Rain band continuing to evolve to as expected with moderate rates
stretching across the Devils Lake basin. Matched current temp and
winds to the forecast along with radar trends. Redevelopment to
the south is expected this afternoon into the valley however it
will be scattered in nature.

UPDATE Issued at 652 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018

Updated forecast to bump up chances of rain based on latest
trends/model data. Also tweaked sky a bit, but generally kept the
forecast as is in most areas. Precipitation looks to be on track
for now with band of rain extending from Bismarck northeast
through Devils Lake and Pembina.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018

An upper level wave is making its way northeastward across the
Dakotas this morning. A nose of high theta-e air exists from
south-central ND northeast to northwest MN also this morning.
Coinciding with this ridge of warmth/moisture is good low-mid
level frontogenesis. Expecting the area of showers at
Cooperstown/Valley City to continue to move NNE towards Langdon
and Pembina overnight tonight. Models have the area of weak
showers over northern MN to drift northward towards sunrise. As
the upper low moves northeast across ND, the surface low will move
from north-central SD NE through the central Red River Valley.
There is a very high chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm
on the north side of the low. And a lower chance of rain, but
better chance of thunderstorms on the south side of the low today.
Still...any storms that fire today are not expected to be severe
given the lack of shear and instability. Overall, expecting over
an inch of rain in parts of the northern Red River Valley...and
less than a tenth in some areas of the far southern Red River
Valley and areas east towards Wadena today and tonight.

Winds today will be rather breezy both on the south and north
sides of the low. The north winds will be the strongest...at 20-30
mph across the Devils Lake Basin, Langdon, and northern Red River
Valley. South winds on the south side of the low will range from
15 to 25 mph...mainly in the southern RRV. Skies clear out late
tonight in the north and may need to watch for frost potential as
temps may hit the mid 30s in areas of the far NW if winds let up
enough.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018

Saturday and Sunday...Frontal boundary will be slow to exit the
southeast zones on Sat and the far southeast zones Sat night.
Little or no precip is expected the rest of this period.

Monday through Thursday...Split flow was across North America
with northern flow over Canada and southern flow over the states.
Long wave ridge over western Canada shifts east into parts of
central Canada and broadens through the period. Broad long wave
trough over eastern Canada sharpens as western part of trough
shifts east. Longwave trough over CA weakens through the period.
The GFS is faster with the northern stream and the ECMWF is faster
with the southern stream.

Short wave trough expected to move through Tue and may produce light
showers. Some warm advection precip is forecast for next Thu. The
next chance for precip will be late Thu into Fri.

High temperatures were increased about a degree for Tue, increased
two degrees for Wed, and increased zero to three degrees for Thu.
Little change was done to Mon compared to yesterdays forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

Band of IFR CIGs at DVL associated with area of rain will
gradually slide across the area impacting all TAF sites over the
next 6 to 12 hours. N to NE gusty winds will continue at TVF, GFK
and DVL and will be turning to the north, northeast at FAR and
BJI this afternoon and evening. Rain showers will end from
northwest to southeast in this evening and into the overnight.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...Knutsvig
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JK



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