Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 171926
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
226 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight...Wednesday...and Wednesday Night
Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Another cold April afternoon was noted across north-central and
northeast Wisconsin as temperatures were only in the upper 20s
to middle 30s. Normal high temperatures for this time of year
are in the lower to middle 50s.

For tonight, some decrease in cloudiness is expected across
much of the area. The combination of partly cloudy skies,
diminishing winds and a fresh snow pack will allow temperatures
to fall below guidance. If some locations across the north
go calm for several hours tonight, temperatures could potentially
fall into the single digits to around 10.

For Wednesday, the next system will bring another round of snow to
the southern half of the state. There are still some timing
differences in when the snow would arrive across east-central
Wisconsin, but confidence is high that 2 to 4 inches will fall
from Marshfield to Wisconsin Rapids east southeast to Wautoma
to Oshkosh to Manitowoc. Dry air will funnel southwest into the
system, thus there will be a sharp gradient in the snowfall
amounts as you head towards Wausau to Green Bay to Kewaunee
where snowfall totals around an inch or less are expected.
Due to the colder start to the day and mostly cloudy skies,
went around 5 degrees colder than guidance for highs on
Wednesday. The snow should end fairly quickly Wednesday
evening as dry air is funneled southward.

.LONG TERM...Thursday Through Tuesday
Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Once the mid-week system moves east, mid-level ridging should keep
the weather relatively quiet with temperatures slowly moderating
to normal readings by the end of the period.

Next chance for rain looks to be Tuesday as cold front moves
across the state.

The slow moderation in temps will help with a more controlled
snowmelt and river response to the 2-3 inches of water in the
current snow cover.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

MVFR CIGS will give way to VFR CIGS this afternoon across northern
Wisconsin. Northwest winds of 10 to 20 knots will gradually
diminish this evening. Skies will become clear to partly
cloudy for awhile, then mid and high clouds will be on the
increase later tonight and Wednesday as next weather maker
approaches from the west. Light snow is expected to arrive
across central Wisconsin late Wednesday morning and then
could become moderate at times Wednesday afternoon into
early Wednesday evening across central and east-central
Wisconsin. Very sharp gradient in the snowfall totals are
expected. KAUW/KECS/KGRB could see a dusting to an inch
while KISW/KMFI/KY50/KOSH/KMTW could see 2 to 5 inches
with locally higher amounts near KISW/KY50. Snow should
taper off from north to south Wednesday evening.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Forecast conditions through early next week indicate a gradual
melt of the deep snow pack. Temperatures by the weekend appear
closer to normal for a potential of a steadier melt in the daytime
and overnight lows near or below freezing to stop or slow down
the melt. After Wednesday`s system, expect some periods of April
sunshine to work on the snow along with relatively low surface
dewpoints. A cold front dropping over the area next Tuesday may
generate up to 0.25 inches of rain.

Rivers will eventually respond to the snow melt, and minor
flooding is quite possible on the usual rivers that experience
(early) spring flooding, but it appears the melt will be
relatively controlled given the forecast.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM to 11 PM CDT Wednesday for
WIZ045-048>050.

Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for
WIZ035-036.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....Eckberg
LONG TERM......JKL
AVIATION.......Eckberg
HYDROLOGY......JKL


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