Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 170313
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1013 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lake effect snow showers may produce 2 to 4 inches of snow in
  far northern Vilas county late tonight through Sunday night.

- Except for Tuesday, below normal temperatures will continue
  into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Short Term...Tonight and Sunday

A switch to more winterlike conditions started today,
and will continue through next week. Jet streaks rotating through
the cyclonic upper flow and cold air moving across the Great
Lakes will produce lots of clouds tonight and Sunday. Lake effect
snow flurries and showers are possible in Vilas county overnight,
but winds are not ideal for anything more an inch or so of snow.
Lows tonight will still be a few degrees above normal, but with a
gusty wind to make it feel colder.

Sunday will be blustery and colder, with a good chance of snow
flurries as an upper trough moves across the area. Lake effect
snow showers may become better organized and move into northwest
Vilas county in the afternoon, and possibly produce and inch or
two or snow. High temperatures will actually be 5 to 10 degrees
below normal for this time of the year.

Long Term...Sunday Night Through Saturday

Those highs in the 50s-60s-70s will be a distant memory this week
as a 500mb ridge across western North America will flattened by
the middle of the weekend. However. a 500mb trough will linger
across eastern Canada will keep the area in a northwest flow
pattern through Thursday before the flow becomes zonal next
weekend. Except for Tuesday, the latest MEX guidance has forecast
high temperatures in the 30s, even some 20s north. Looking at past
El Nino winters of 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16 indicated there
were cool stretches during the spring based on Green Bay monthly
average temperatures.

For Sunday night, light snow showers or flurries will linger
across the far north and possibly into Monday morning before
winds over Lake Superior diminish and back to the west. Monday
will be tranquil as high pressure slides east of the area. On
Monday night, 850mb warm advection ahead of the next approaching
cold front will bring a chance of snow to areas along the Canadian
border. Do have a small chance of light snow over far northeast
Wisconsin. Tuesday will be the warmest day of the week with highs
ranging from the middle 30s to lower 40s far north and in the 40s
to around 50 across central into northeast Wisconsin. Colder
weather returns on Wednesday and continues into Thursday. ECMWF
is several degrees colder than the MEX guidance. Despite the
differences, these readings will be at least several degrees
below normal. For precipitation chances on Thursday and Thursday
night, the ECMWF and Canadian model have trended south and would
only clip our southern counties. The GFS model is more bullish
with precipitation across the entire area. There is another system
behind the first one based on the ECMWF/Canadian models in the
Friday into Saturday period There are some pretty significant
timing differences that will be resolved in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1009 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Upper level disturbances and cold northwest winds flowing across
Lake Superior will produce BKN-OVC skies through Sunday night.
Most of the forecast area will have VFR ceilings from 3500-6000
feet AGL, with scattered flurries at times. MVFR ceilings are
expected at times across north central WI through the TAF period,
along with lake-effect snow showers. The snow showers will be
most numerous in Vilas County, where IFR vsbys will likely occur
at times. Gusty northwest winds will decrease slightly overnight,
increase again by mid to late Sunday morning, then diminish a bit
by sunset Sunday.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....RDM/Eckberg
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch


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