Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 242117

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
417 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued 355 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Main forecast concern is timing of next short wave trough
approaching the area later Sunday afternoon.

Water vapor imagery showing cirrostratus associated with outgoing
trough is finally thinning over the western CWA. This trend is
expected to continue through the night with this systems exit.
Models suggesting clouds will be fast on the heals of this system,
with some weak forcing moving into far western CWA late Sunday
afternoon. We should see increasing clouds from the west again
during the day. We kept the low end chance PoP for some light rain
moving into the far west after 21z Sunday. Also, pressure
gradient increases during the day, especially to the west. We do
have a fresh snow pack to the south, and will likely affect lows
tonight and highs for Sunday. Those ares in deeper snow will see
temperatures remaining in the 30s with lower and mid 40s to the
east, where snow remains sparse.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued 355 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Couple of concerns develop into the longer term. Models trend
decent forcing ahead of the next trough later Sunday night and
Monday. The GFS is most impressive with its nearly coupled jet
structure as the system lifts into the area. The ECMWF is not
quite as developed but still manages to generate some mix
precipitation potential across the area. Bufkit sounding showing
warm nose lifting into the region Monday into Tuesday. Although
ice aloft will likely be present with the passage of the trough,
we will see some melting occur as the precipitation develops.
Surface temepratures will be critical as to where rain/freezing
rain ill occur. At the moment, we have around one tenth of an inch
of freezing rain forecast over western portions of the cwa. We
will need to monitor boundary layer temperatures into future
forecasts. Also, accumulating snow potential arrives later Sunday
night and Monday, especially to the northwest as best
frontogenetic forcing and forcing along the better couple jet. We
presently have a general 2 to 4 inch snow accumulation across the
northern MN portion of the cwa. Both forecast issues certainly
advisory potential. Stay tuned.

The flow aloft becomes a bit more progressive with both the GFS
and ECMWF bringing in the another short wave trough around Friday.
The GFS being a bit more amplified and stronger with its surface
low. Both will generate a fair amount of snow, especially across
the northern portion of the cwa, if they verify. Overall,
temperature trend is expected to remain below normal through the


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Snow dropped just south of the KMKT airfield this morning. KRWF is
about to end as well. Will bring up to VFR shortly with the rest
of the area seeing mix of mid/high level clouds into tonight. May
see some clouds move back in/develop later tonight ahead of the
next system, but feel all sites will remain VFR. E winds a bit
gusty at times this afternoon over the east, will become
southeast and increase into Sunday.

No concerns.

SUN Nite...VFR. Wind SE 10-15 kts.
MON...MVFR with CHC -SN in the morning, then RA. Wind SE 10 kts.
TUE...VFR with CHC MVFR/-RA. Wind NW 10 kts.




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