Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 110341

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
941 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018

Issued at 941 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018

Updated to include 06Z aviation discussion below.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 204 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018

Shortwave trough continues to slide southeast across the western
Dakotas this afternoon, with the main PV anomaly expected to
remain southwest of our area. Hence, the best forcing is certainly
going to remain to the southwest as well, but we still expect to
see some light snow showers tonight in addition to some fog

The feature of note over our area is the inverted trough which
will work through the area tonight. Expect the light snow showers
and fog development out ahead of the wind shift. Not confident in
widespread snow showers, looks to be more scattered in nature, so
really don`t expect much in the way of accumulation.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 204 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018

The big story in the long term period is the warmer weather for
the end of the week. From Sunday night through the end of the
week, conditions will remain dry and highs will be near normal. A
back door cold front will drop in from the northeast across
eastern MN and western WI Monday night. Current forecast calls for
lows in the mid to upper teens, but if this signal continues,
wouldn`t be surprised to see lows in the single digits Tuesday

Things look similar to previous runs for late in the week with
large trough coming onshore across the western CONUS, pushing a
ridge eastward over us, and continuous southwest flow will see
temperatures climb above normal and quickly erode our snow pack.
There are some PoPs in the forecast for next weekend, and it
depends on the path of a developing system that looks to come
through the Upper Midwest.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 941 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018

Thinking hasn`t changed much from earlier. Will see some lingering
light snow into the first part of the forecast period,
particularly over the south/east portions, but main issue for
lower visibilities overnight into Sunday will be some fog. There
have been a few drizzle reports upstream, but not widespread.
However, that certainly bears watching given the expectation for
below freezing temperatures overnight, which could lead to some
freezing drizzle. At this point, it appears to be a low
probability issue, with satellite indicating most of the upstream
cloud cover is glaciated. But, as mentioned, bears watching.
Otherwise, we`ll see slow improvement on Sunday until we start to
see ridging and drier air work in late in the day and evening.

KMSP...Main uncertainty is with respect to how low visibilities
and ceilings will get overnight. Stuck close to previous
forecasts, which is also reasonably in line with the latest LAMP

.Monday...Brief MVFR possible with a chance of snow showers.
Northwest wind around 10 kt.
.Monday night and Tuesday...VFR. Northwest wind 5 to 10 kt.
.Tuesday night...VFR. Variable wind less than 5 kt.
.Wednesday...VFR. Southwest wind less than 10 kt.




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