979
FXUS63 KMPX 031822
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
122 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer and sunny today and Sunday with a chance for another
  round of rain on Saturday.

- Unsettled weather pattern next week with more rain chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Today through Sunday... High pressure today will provide for
clear skies and plenty of sun during the day. These clear skies
overnight have also allowed for temperatures to cool into the
40s. These cooler temperatures near the dew points have allowed
for mist and fog to form. This is mainly occurring across far
eastern Minnesota and into western Wisconsin. Once the sun rises
and temperatures start to rise, this fog and mist will clear
quickly. Tonight into Saturday morning, possibly into the
afternoon in western Wisconsin, another round of rain showers is
expected. As mentioned in the previous discussion this is tied
to a shortwave aloft and its associated front at the surface.
With the speed this is forecast to pass through and the moisture
available up to around a quarter of an inch is expected. Not
seeing much in the way of convection occurring with little
instability and this matches up with the lack of general thunder
in SPC Day 1 and Day 2 for us. With high pressure moving back
in behind the front, clearing skies should arrive Saturday
evening to Saturday night. Temperatures in the 60s for the sunny
days today and Sunday with cooler temperatures in the upper 50s
to lower 60s under cloudy skies on Saturday.

Monday through Thursday... Monday will start with warm air
advection warming us into the 70s. The high pressure should hang
around long enough to keep most of Monday warm and dry, although
some rain could start moving in later in the day across western
Minnesota. This continues to look like a very unsettled period
with a wide spread among the ensembles systems. Across this
period from Monday night to Thursday each six hour block has at
least a few members in the GEFS, ENS, or GEPS with QPF. This is
spread across the period with one period having the highest
confidence Monday night into Tuesday morning. Which matches
when the deterministic models bring the main synoptic forcing
through the Upper Midwest. This is related to amplified trough
moving east of the Rockies during this period. As this system
occludes and stalls out of the north central CONUS that PoP get
less certain and lower. With this weaker and broader forcing
there is much less confidence in where rain could occur. With
the rain chances and clouds the rest of the week will be cooler
with temperature more in the upper 50s to upper 60s rather than
Monday`s 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

VFR for all terminals to start while a cold front sits atop
MN/WI. This front will become more active this evening through
tonight as a disturbance aloft drifts southeast from southern
Manitoba, helping spawn a swath of rain over the eastern Dakotas
and western MN this afternoon. This swath will then slowly move
east this evening through the overnight hours, bringing MVFR
ceilings and visibilities to all terminals gradually from west
to east. Chances for CB/TS are rather low, limited mainly to far
southern MN (thus KMKT), so have opted to not include its
mention in this set. Ceilings have the potential to drop to IFR
but confidence not high enough to go that route. Rainfall looks
to end around sunrise in western MN, by late morning in eastern
MN and early afternoon in western WI. Winds will be breezy from
the SW through this afternoon, then the progression of and
convergence around the front will dictate winds through tonight
before winds settle on northwesterly Saturday morning with
speeds 10kts or less.

KMSP...Main issue through this afternoon will be breezy winds
from the 210-230 range, potentially causing crosswind concerns
for the parallel runways. Once past that issue, come later this
evening when winds become northerly, rain looks to move in
around 08z, potentially as early as 06z, and continuing through
daybreak. Chances fairly low for CB/TS at this point but will
continue to evaluate for inclusion later. Rainfall amounts look
to run 0.25"-0.50". Clearing then expected from late morning
onward with NW winds.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind variable 5 kts becoming SE 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Chance PM MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 15-20G25-30 kts.
TUE...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-TSRA. Wind S 15-20G25-30kts.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

The continued wet pattern for the next week will also continue to
cause rising rivers over the entire HSA. Soils have started to
become saturated at upper levels, so runoff is increasing with each
rain event, though the onset of the growing season does help along
with recovery days between rain events. All told, most tributaries
and mainstem rivers will continue a slow rise for at least the next
week, with some in the Minnesota and Crow river basins approaching
minor flood stage by early next week (Minnesota at Morton already
there).

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...JPC
HYDROLOGY...CCS