Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 251131

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
631 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Issued at 631 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Updated to include 12Z aviation discussion below.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Early morning IR imagery with surface obs and Rap analysis showed
clear skies and light winds across the region. And area of high
pressure was located from South Dakota through northern Minnesota.

Today the high pressure will slowly sag to the southeast so should
see northerly winds go calm and eventually take on a light
southerly direction. Expect plenty of sun today. Tonight a PV
anomaly will drive a cold front through the region. This system is
weakening, but should see a few rain showers develop along it and
move in from the northwest.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

The weakening frontal boundary will bring clouds and a chance for
some light rain showers on Thursday, but most locations should
stay dry. If they do see precipitation, amounts should be less
than a tenth of an inch. High pressure will build in for Friday
and Saturday.

Meanwhile a large upper level ridge will build upstream while a
low develops over the west coast. This low attempts to undercut
the ridge and bring southwest flow across the Upper Midwest. This
will bring warmer temperatures and increase the boundary layer
moisture. The mid level lapse rates are quite impressive, on the
order of 7.5 to 8.5 C/km, and together with the jet aloft will
give us a CAPE/Shear profile capable of thunderstorms and perhaps
some severe weather. It is too early to for timing, and at this
point the moisture seems limited for widespread severe weather.
None the less, a more active weather pattern continues to look
more likely for next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

A quiet period is expected, with VFR conditions remaining in place
across the area. Winds will back through tonight, but will be
light, then will veer behind the passage of a trough on Thursday.

KMSP...Only concern is in the final six hours or so of the
forecast period when we will see some lower clouds in association
with the trough work into the area. It currently appears that
ceilings will remain VFR, but it will be something to keep an eye
on. There could be a few showers as well, but confidence isn`t
sufficient to include them at this time.

Thursday afternoon...Brief MVFR possible with a chance of showers.
Northwest wind 10 to 15 kt.
Thursday night...VFR. Northwest wind 5 to 10 kt becoming west 5 kt
or less.
Friday...VFR. West wind 5 to 10 kt becoming northwest 10 to 15 kt.
Friday night...VFR. North wind 5 to 10 kt.
Saturday...VFR. North wind 5 to 10 kt.
Saturday night...VFR. Variable wind 5 kt or less.
Sunday...VFR. Southeast wind 10 to 20 kt.




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