Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 241941

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
241 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Skies will clear this evening with dew points dropping into the
20s. As winds slowly decrease, temperatures should fall to near,
or below freezing by sunrise. Winds will shift to the west and
southwest Wednesday afternoon, especially in western Minnesota.
Temperatures will be slightly higher tomorrow as full sunshine is

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Two fronts will move across the region through Saturday. The first
will move through the area Thursday, with a band of clouds and
isolated showers. Most areas will remain dry but gusty winds
developing behind the front Thursdays evening will make it feel
much cooler. Late Friday night, another dry front will move
overhead, and again no precipitation is expected. These fronts
will mainly keep temperatures from rising to much above the normal
highs in the 60s. Overnight lows may drop to near freezing by
Saturday morning so keep in mind if you start placing plants

Before discussing specifics next week, the GFS/EC mean upper
level flow will become conducive on an active period next week.
Thus, the northwest flow today will become southwest next week. In
addition, the EC/GFS have both become more consistent with a
strong upper ridge building in the southeast CONUS next week.
This will lead to a persistent southwest flow in the mid section
of the nation. Thus, much warmer temperatures and deeper moisture
from the gulf.

Now the specifics,

Significant weather changes are expected late in the weekend, and
into next week. The two fronts previously mentioned will hold off
any gulf moisture until late in the weekend, or next week as
winds shift to the south. Before any moisture returns to the
region, southerly winds Sunday/Monday will lead to well above
normal temperatures, and possibly into Tuesday if the next front
holds off to the west. This could be our first mid to upper 70s or
even an 80 degree day.

Depending upon when deeper moisture returns, fire weather
concerns may develop as wind speeds increase, and humidity levels
are low. In addition, once moisture does return, the possibility
of thunderstorms become likely. There is an experimental CIPS
analog which has a severe weather probability guidance. Based on
the return of gulf moisture, and the added stronger wind energy,
this analog suggests a 15-30% chance of severe storms next
Tuesday and Wednesday for southern Minnesota.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Gusty north to northeast winds will continue through the afternoon
with light showers in far west/southwest Minnesota, outside MPX
TAF sites. Winds will decrease this evening and back to the
northwest to west by Wednesday morning. VFR cigs will continue
through the forecast period.


No additional concerns.


Wed night...VFR. Wind SW 5 to 10 kt.
Thu...MVFR possible with chc of -RA. Wind SW bcmg NW 10 to 20 kts.
Fri...VFR. Wind W bcmg NW 5 to 15 kt.




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