410
FXUS63 KMPX 070413
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1113 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and a few rumbles of thunder are expected tonight into
  Tuesday morning with up to an inch of precip possible.

- A Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms exists tomorrow
  afternoon/evening for far eastern Minnesota and western
  Wisconsin. The main threat is hail and gusty winds, but there
  is a non-zero chance for a tornado.

- Continued chances for showers with cooler temperatures through
  the end of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 706 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

No major changes to the forecast for today through Tuesday.
Fine-tuned the timing of the rainfall for later this evening and
overnight. The main concern is for a few stronger wind gusts to
mix down to the surface, but the overall threat for severe
weather remains low. Looking ahead to tomorrow, 18Z forecast
soundings off the NAM/HRRR and 21Z RAP show an uncapped
environment with close to 1000 J/kg. HiRes models have many
showers/thunderstorms across the region during the afternoon,
and as the previous shift mentioned, a few of these could
produce hail and gusty winds. There is also a non-zero chance
for a tornado or two depending on the surface instability and
boundaries.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024
Cloud cover has continued to increase through the day with strong
southerly flow ahead of the expansive synoptic scale system
that is bringing a variety of hazards to the central CONUS.
Temperatures around noon had already reached the upper 60s and
low 70s, but with cloud cover becoming thicker and more
prevalent, we`ll likely only see a few more degrees of heating
for today. Winds have gusted into the 35-40 MPH range across
western Minnesota where a Wind Advisory remains in effect. Wind
speeds of 25-30 MPH are more common further east, but a few
higher gusts remain possible. As far as this evening`s showers
and thunderstorms go, CAMs are in good agreement that any
activity will hold off until after 00z. A northwest to southeast
oriented line will push across the southern half of Minnesota
through the overnight hours with the threat for thunder staying
confined to far southwest Minnesota. The showers will move into
the Twin Cities area after 06z and finally into Wisconsin by
09z. QPF amounts remain fairly unchanged from the previous
forecast (widespread 0.25-0.50" with more localized totals of
0.5-1.0")with the bulk of the precip ending by mid morning with
the now occluded front stretching across Minnesota. The focus
then shifts to tomorrow afternoon and the potential for the
development of a few strong to severe storms across far eastern
Minnesota and western Wisconsin. The triple point associated
with the low that continue to spin over the Dakotas should
remain just to the south of our forecast area to start the day,
but is expected to lift northward into western Wisconsin by the
afternoon. This region has been highlighted by a Marginal Risk
in the SPC SWODY2. Models have 700-1200 J/kg of CAPE across far
southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin tomorrow afternoon,
which would be more than sufficient to get some storms as the
front continues to occlude/move east. The primary hazards will
be hail and gusty winds with any of the stronger storms that
develop. There`s still some uncertainty regarding the initiation
time and just how far east storms will develop, but generally
the timing looks to be during the late afternoon and evening
hours. Any severe threat will diminish after 02-03z as
instability wanes and the line of showers and storms exits to
the east.

Heading into Wednesday, there`s not much change from the previous
forecasts. The upper low meanders slowly over the Dakotas and into
Minnesota with a few embedded waves leading to some additional
precip chances through Thursday, mainly for the southern half of the
forecast area. Continued low PoPs exist through the end of the week
with a separate shortwave dropping down out of Canada Friday. QPF
totals will be around 0.5-0.75" throughout those three days with
locally higher amounts possible. Temperature wise, Thursday is still
on track to be the coolest day of the period with highs in the
low 60s before rebounding quickly to end the week near 70 once
again.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1109 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

VFR conditions will transition to MVFR/IFR as a line of showers
with a few embedded thunderstorms moves across the region
affecting all TAF sites. Winds will be southeast ahead of this
line of precipitation, but then become more southerly and
eventually southwest late Tuesday into Tuesday evening. There is
another chance for thunderstorms to develop Tuesday afternoon
and evening at KMSP, KRNH, and KEAU.

KMSP...Showers and thunderstorms will move through after
midnight tonight, and exit Tuesday morning. One change from the
previous forecast is that confidence is increasing that showers
and thunderstorms will develop again Tuesday afternoon and
evening. A few could produce gusty winds and small hail.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-TSRA late. Wind NE 10-15 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind NE 15-20G25-30 kts.
FRI...Mainly VFR. Chance PM MVFR/-TSRA. Wind W 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JRB
DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...JRB