Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 191744

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
144 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 144 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2018

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low over the MO/KS
border with a trough over the northern Rockies this morning. There
is also a trough over New England. The closed low along the MO/ KS
border heads east and opens up while the trough in the northern
Rockies moves into the northern plains 00z Wed. It is borderline for
lake effect snow showers, but there could be enough moisture to at
least put in slight chance pops in the eastern lake effect snow
belts and will have that tonight into Tue morning. Otherwise, pretty
quiet weather through the forecast period.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 244 AM EDT MON MAR 19 2018

Looks like quiet weather will persist through much of the week. A
weak upper level trough will bring an increase in mid-level clouds
Tue into Wed but low-level dry air in a ne flow circulating around a
Hudson Bay high should ensure dry conditions. The mid level clouds
combined with the cool ne flow off Lake Superior will keep temps blo
normal Tue into Wed with highs in the upper 20s north to lower to
mid 30s south.

Upper ridge from the west begins to shift into the Upper Great Lakes
Thursday and Friday yielding more sunshine as temps push back toward
normal with highs in the lower to mid 30s north to upper 30s south.

Next weekend mainly on Saturday, the 00Z Canadian model indicates
pcpn (mainly in the form of snow) reaching into mainly the sw and
south central portions of Upper Mi, associated with a stronger
shortwave moving through the Upper MS Valley. It is likely that the
northern portion of the pcpn shield from this shortwave will be
impeded by continued dry east to northeast low level flow from the
Hudson Bay high as suggested by the drier 12Z/00Z ECMWF solutions
and now the latest 00z GFS solution. At this point, will keep low
chc pops in for light snow over the sw and south central fcst area
based on model consensus, but could easily see drier solution of
12Z/00Z ECMWF and 00z GFS verifying given strength of persistent
ridging from Hudson Bay into the Upper Great Lakes.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 122 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2018

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with
periods of mid clouds. However, upslope ne flow of colder air will
support a greater chance for MVFR cigs at KSAW by late this evening
that will persist overnight.

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 144 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2018

High pressure building in from Ontario will produce ne winds around
25 knots over western Lake Superior into tonight. Otherwise no
significant strong winds are expected through the forecast period,
with winds generally staying at or below 20 knots.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


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