138
FXUS65 KBOI 100828
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
228 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday night...An upper level ridge
to our northwest will dominate our weather into Sunday as it
weakens and drifts south. Late Sunday into Monday, an upper
level trough will move in from the west. Temps will continue to
warm each day through Sunday, with highs around 5 degrees above
normal today, 10 above normal Saturday, and 10-15 above normal
Sunday. It will be dry with mostly clear skies and relatively
light winds.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...As the upper level trough
moves through early Monday into Monday afternoon, winds will
increase out of the northwest for most folks. There is a slight
chance to chance (10-30%) of showers/thunderstorms in far
southeast Owyhee and Twin Falls counties. An upper level ridge
will build in after this trough Monday evening, but models do
not agree on how long it will stay around. Some (such as the
latest deterministic ECMWF) have it strengthen through the end
of next week, and this would bring us dry and warm weather.
Others (such as the latest deterministic GFS), weaken it and
bring an upper trough through the PacNW Thu night into Friday.
For now, we are slightly more confident in the ECMWF depiction
of things, but the long term forecast is based on neither of
these extremes coming to fruition, with something in the middle
the most likely solution. With this in mind, slight chance PoPS
over much of the northern CWA extend from Wed evening to Thu
evening. We are keeping Friday dry at this time. The warm NBM
temp forecasts seem to favor the warmer ECMWF solution, but if
the GFS ends up being closer to the truth, we will eventually
need to adjust these downward at least 10 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. Sfc winds: variable less than 10 kt, except E
10-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt near KJER/KTWF. Winds at 10k ft
MSL: Generally E 10-20 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Sfc winds: SE around 5 kt through 10/18Z, then NW
5-10 kt.

.WEEKEND OUTLOOK...VFR. High pressure dominating the region with
dry conditions and surface winds 5-15 kt.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....SP
AVIATION.....SP