994
FXUS62 KCAE 061829
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
229 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue through the early
this week as multiple disturbances move across the region. A
lull in activity is anticipated for midweek, with increasing
chances of showers and storms towards the end of the week.
Expect generally above average temperatures through the latter
half of the week before transitioning to near or slightly below
average next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Upper trough over the Tennessee River Valley into GA/AL taking
on a slight negative tilt. The main short wave trough over
southeast Tennessee into north Ga appears stronger on water
vapor than suggested by GFS/ECMWF. Several short waves are
expected to trigger convection this afternoon and into the
evening. At the moment, there is a weak short wave over the
CSRA that is triggering convection from the Pee Dee southwest
across the Midlands. This convection will push to the northeast.
At the surface there is a ridge offshore, the air mass is quite
moist, due to moderate 850mb southwest moisture transport. The
precipitable water is around 1.50-1.70 inches. The air mass is
becoming moderately unstable with ML CAPE around 1000 J/kg with
some lingering CIN. Low level convergence appears weak. Behind
the initial short wave over the CSRA, clearing is developing,
and stronger instability is developing over GA. Think the air
mass will become more unstable later this afternoon as a second
stronger short wave approaches. Note, sfc based CAPE around 3000
J/kg in east central Ga just southwest of AGS. This will lead
to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms through the
early evening, the shifting to the north as yet another short
wave moves through near the NC/SC border after 06z. So pops
diminishing from south to north as suggested by CAM models after
Midnight.

Model soundings show steep low to mid level lapse rates this
afternoon with weak shear. The soundings were quite moist this
morning but the latest models showing some mid level drying
ahead of short wave. In fact, DCAPE is increasing in GA. Now
believe this drier air aloft will move into the region,
especially the west Midlands/CSRA and Piedmont and the severe
threat is marginally elevated. Stronger lift in those areas
too. So Main threat, a few pulse storms may produce damaging
wind and locally heavy rain possible with light winds/training.
Temperatures currently in the mid 70s but expect some warming as
clouds thin out. Highs should be on track with low to mid 80s.
Persistence with overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday and Tuesday night: A shortwave trough is forecast to continue
progressing eastward and out of the forecast area in the morning
hours. There could be a lingering shower or thunderstorm in the Pee
Dee early on in the day, but should be quick to exit the region if
there are any showers. Behind the shortwave, relatively flat ridging
moves over the region, allowing temperatures to rise to above
average for this time of year. A weak shortwave is forecast to move
through the broader ridge during the afternoon, mainly to the north
of the forecast area. With moisture expected to remain relatively
high through the day (PWATs around 1.5"), a few showers or
thunderstorms could develop, mainly for the northern portions of the
forecast area. Other areas should remain dry for the day. Overnight
lows should remain above average as well.

Wednesday and Wednesday night: Another warm day is expected on
Wednesday as the broad ridge remains over the region. However, a
larger scale upper trough is forecast to begin moving toward the
Southeast from the Upper Midwest. Another shortwave is forecast to
slide through the area in between the ridge and trough, which could
spark more showers and thunderstorms. A majority of the energy from
this shortwave looks to stay north of the area, but some guidance
extends the energy into our forecast area. Forecast soundings from
multiple models do support the potential for strong thunderstorms,
mainly north of I-20. The soundings near Columbia indicate a bit of
a warm nose around 700 mb, which should hinder convection. As you go
north toward the Charlotte area, this warm nose becomes less
pronounced, which is why PoPs are a little higher there and the
potential for stronger storms is greater there as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Thursday and Thursday night: The larger scale trough continues to
move eastward while a developing surface low and associated cold
front move towards the area on Thursday. Another shortwave is
forecast to move through the region, allowing for more convective
activity in the afternoon and evening hours. With the larger scale
trough approaching, temperatures aloft begin to cool, which would
lead to eroding that aforementioned warm nose around 700 mb. This
would lead to a higher chance for severe weather. Confidence has
increased a bit in this scenario as the various model guidance has
come into better agreement. That said there still remains some
timing and strength differences, which would affect the overall
severe weather potential for the region.

Friday through Monday: Another round of storms looks possible
Friday morning as some guidance indicates an MCS moving through the
Deep South will make its way into the Southeast during the morning
hours. There remains plenty of uncertainty with this scenario, so
confidence is on the lower side as of now (~20%). After that and a
cold front pass, more tranquil weather is forecast for the weekend
into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms with brief restrictions at
times through the early evening. MVFR Stratus/strato-cumulus
possible late tonight.

The air mass remains moist and unstable. At the moment, a weak mid
level trough is moving through the area with light showers near
the CAE/CUB/OGB terminals. Ceilings remain MVFR near the CAE
terminal but expect improving conditions as the trough moves to
the northeast. Outside of convection this afternoon expect
broken VFR cumulus. Scattered thunderstorms are developing over
north GA. These showers will move to the east and into the area
late this afternoon and evening. Locally heavy rain possible so
visibility likely reduced at times. The convection will slowly
diminish during the evening, MVFR ceilings expected to develop
overnight. The guidance favors stratus over fog with a strong
low-level jet, mainly after 09z. Winds light, favoring south
direction shifting to southwest.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Morning fog/stratus less likely on
Wednesday with drier air over the region. The extended will be
active, with mainly diurnal convection each day.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$