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000
FXUS61 KCLE 260000
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
800 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure drifts east of the Great Lakes and then off the
coast of New England by Friday night. A warm front will lift
across the area late Friday into Saturday followed by a cold
front Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
6:30 PM Update...

The forecast remains on track for this evening with no changes
needed. Temperatures are running about 7-10 degrees warmer than
at this time yesterday, so still looks like most areas avoid a
freeze tonight outside of NW PA, so current headlines look
reasonable.

Original Discussion...

High pressure over the Great Lakes drifts eastward tonight into
Friday, but not before one last mainly clear and chilly overnight
period. Freeze warning, largely for the eastern portions of our NW
PA counties, and Frost Advisories everywhere else except for the
immediate lakeshore areas. Not as cold overall as last night, but
still in this chilly airmass and should radiate fairly well with
lots of low-mid 30s, especially in the rural areas. 30F possible in
eastern Crawford PA and the southeast portion of Erie County PA,
prompting the freeze headline despite the smaller area of potential
freezing temperatures. High clouds increase ahead of a warm front
Friday, but with the surface high pressure system well east of the
area, return flow brings a dramatic improvement to the temperatures
that will be 15 to 20 degrees warmer than are being seen today.
Should top the 70F mark over the southwestern zones in the FDY/MNN
areas. Showers and a few thunderstorms with the warm front late
Friday evening into Friday will move in from the southwest. As of
this issuance, just expecting general thunderstorms during the
Friday night period. Temperatures not as low behind the warm front,
but for NW PA, likely yet to be in the milder air, mid 40s a better
bet. Most locations will be under a quarter inch of rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SW`erly to W`erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances
affect our CWA during the short-term period as our CWA remains along
the western flank of an amplifying mid/upper-level ridge over the
eastern United States. At the surface, a warm front should extend
SE`ward across central Lake Erie to near the NE OH/NW PA border at
daybreak Saturday. This front should drift generally NE`ward and
exit Lake Erie and our CWA by early Saturday afternoon. Behind the
front, our region will reside along the northwestern flank of a
surface ridge that is expected to become focused just offshore the
Atlantic coast of the United States through Sunday night.

The combination of low-level warm/moist air advection from the Gulf
of Mexico and southern Gulf Stream, and intervals of sunshine will
allow abnormal warmth to affect northern OH and NW PA. Highs should
reach the mid 60`s to lower 70`s in NW PA and the 70`s to lower 80`s
late Saturday afternoon. Overnight lows should reach the mid 50`s to
mid 60`s around daybreak Sunday. Warmer highs in the mid to upper
70`s are expected in NW PA late Sunday afternoon, while highs should
reach the upper 70`s to lower 80`s in northern OH. Overnight lows
should once again reach the mid 50`s to mid 60`s around daybreak
Monday.

Moist isentropic ascent along the upper-reaches of the warm front
and resulting release of weak, elevated CAPE should trigger
scattered rain showers and thunderstorms over central/eastern Lake
Erie, far-NE OH, and NW PA Saturday morning through early afternoon.
Otherwise isolated rain showers and thunderstorms are possible
through Sunday night due to the release of weak to moderate
instability, including elevated instability, via the following:
Moist isentropic ascent preceding shortwave trough axes and low-
level convergence/moist ascent along subtle surface trough axes
attendant to the shortwave troughs. The best potential for these
additional isolated showers/thunderstorms should exist over/near
central/eastern Lake Erie Saturday night into Sunday morning as
a WSW`erly LLJ develops, undergoes enhanced moist isentropic
ascent, and releases weak, yet sufficient elevated CAPE.
Primarily moderate to strong deep layer bulk shear should allow
storms to be organized and perhaps strong at times.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The aforementioned ridge at the surface and aloft should exit E`ward
on Monday through Monday night as SW`erly flow aloft and embedded
shortwave disturbances continue to impact our region. Isolated to
scattered showers/thunderstorms remain possible due to similar
reasons mentioned in the short-term part of the discussion.
Intervals of sunshine and continued low-level warm/moist air
advection from the southern Gulf Stream and Gulf of Mexico are
expected to allow late afternoon highs to reach mainly the lower
80`s. Overnight lows should reach the upper 50`s to lower 60`s
around daybreak Tuesday.

W`erly flow aloft becomes established over the eastern Great Lakes
and Upper OH Valley on Tuesday through Thursday as embedded
shortwave disturbances continue to traverse our region. At the
surface, net troughing becomes established and two cold fronts are
forecast to sweep E`ward through our CWA; one on Tuesday and a
stronger/reinforcing front on Wednesday. Isolated to scattered and
periodic showers/thunderstorms are possible due in part to the
release of weak instability, including elevated instability, via low-
level convergence/moist ascent along the fronts. Daytime highs
should reach mainly the 70`s on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the 60`s
to lower 70`s on Thursday as a noticeably-colder air mass follows the
second/stronger cold front. Overnight lows should reach the 50`s
around daybreak Tuesday and the upper 40`s to lower 50`s around
daybreak Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
VFR will remain in control areawide through the TAF cycle as
surface high pressure slowly shifts into New England allowing a
warm front to lift across the region late Friday. This will
cause light NE winds tonight to become SE at 5-10 knots Friday.
The weak gradient will allow for an afternoon lake breeze, so
have winds turning NE at KCLE and KERI Friday afternoon,
although the wind shift will likely take until late afternoon to
reach KCLE. Light SE winds will then return Friday evening.

Outlook...Non-VFR may return in periodic showers and
thunderstorms early Friday night through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
E`erly to NE`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots are expected through
Friday, but should be as strong as 20 knots at times through this
early evening and again tomorrow afternoon through early evening as
daytime heating of land surrounding Lake Erie and contraction of
relatively-cold lake-modified air result in localized enhancement of
the ridge over Lake Erie. Waves trend mainly 3 feet or less, but
occasional 4 footers should accompany the enhanced NE`erly winds
east of The Islands. Given these very marginal winds/waves,
refrained from issuing a Small Craft Advisory. The ridge exits
E`ward as a warm front drifts generally NE`ward across Lake Erie on
Friday night through Saturday. This front`s passage will cause
NE`erly to E`erly winds around 10 to 20 knots to veer to S`erly.
However, the S`erly winds may be as strong as 25 knots at times on
Saturday and a Small Craft Advisory may be needed. Waves trend
primarily 3 feet or less in nearshore waters and no larger than 4 to
6 feet in open U.S. waters.

S`erly to SW`erly winds around 10 to 20 knots Saturday night ease to
around 10 to 15 knots on Sunday through Monday night as the
aforementioned ridge rebuilds into the Lake Erie region and the core
of ridge becomes located offshore the southeastern U.S. Waves should
trend mainly 3 feet or less, but occasional 4 to 5 footers are
forecast in open U.S. waters Saturday night into Sunday. A weak cold
front should sweep E`ward across Lake Erie on Tuesday and cause
SW`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots to veer to W`erly. Waves are
expected to remain 3 feet or less.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Friday for
     OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047.
PA...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Friday for
     PAZ002-003.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...Garuckas/26
SHORT TERM...Jaszka
LONG TERM...Jaszka
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...Jaszka