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000
FXUS61 KILN 180729
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
329 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will move east across the middle Ohio Valley
today, resulting in dry weather. For tonight, low pressure will
ride northeast along an eastward advancing cold front, bringing
renewed chances for showers and thunderstorms. Precipitation
will taper off on Friday as the front continues east. High
pressure will then build back into the region for the weekend,
bringing below normal temperatures along with chances for frost.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Through sunrise, CAA stratocumulus clouds will skim our
northern zones, while the rest of the region remains mostly
clear.

For today, dry weather is on tap as a weak ridge of high
pressure traverses across the middle Ohio Valley. Some high
clouds may spill into the region from the west, especially late
due to upstream convection. It will be warm with highs ranging
from the lower 70s north to the lower 80s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
For tonight, a lead mid level s/wv will eject east from the
middle Mississippi Valley into the middle Ohio Valley.
Associated low pressure and a cold front to our west will move
east into the forecast area overnight. After analyzing various
CAMs, it appears that we will see the weakening north end of an
MCS complex. This weakening pcpn is expected to arrive into our
forecast area later in the evening and during the overnight
period when overall instability will be decreasing (falling
below moderate instability) Thus, it appears that the threat for
any strong or severe storm will be limited to mainly the
evening hours and across parts of our western CWFA. Isolated
strong or damaging wind gusts would be the main threat. Showers
and a few embedded thunderstorms will then continue overnight as
the system shifts farther into the CWFA. Lows will range from
the upper 40s northwest to the lower 60s southeast.

On Friday, the cold front will exit east out of the forecast
area by the afternoon hours. Pcpn will taper off and should then
end by the afternoon hours as well. Mostly cloudy skies will
gradually become partly cloudy in the afternoon. Under a
northwest flow, cooler temperatures are forecast. Highs will
range from the upper 50s northwest to near 70 southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure builds in from the northwest Friday night through
Sunday night. Below average temperatures persist along with
northwesterly/northerly flow. Forecast lows on Saturday night
and Sunday night are expected to drop into the mid to lower 30s
north of the Ohio River which could support frost. However,
there still remains uncertainty in regards to frost potential
this weekend since some cloud cover may remain in place
overnight. High pressure finally moves overhead on Monday and
Monday night continuing the trend of dry conditions and cool
weather.

The next chance for rain arrives on Tuesday and into the
midweek when another upper level wave and surface cyclone may
move across the region. Temperatures may moderate ahead of the
disturbance before dropping back closer to seasonal averages
behind the system.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Some post frontal CAA stratocumulus clouds will skim the
northern terminals overnight. Otherwise, the remainder of the
region will remain mostly clear as surface high pressure builds
into the middle Ohio Valley. Winds will be west/northwest
between 5 and 10 knots.

For today, surface high pressure will eventually shift east by
afternoon. It will remain dry as some high level clouds spill
into the area from the west. Winds will shift to a
south/southwest direction around 5 knots.

For tonight, low pressure is forecast to ride northeast along
an advancing cold front into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
Showers and some embedded thunderstorms propagating east ahead
of the main cold front may make it to the western terminals
between 03Z and 06Z.

OUTLOOK...Showers and with a chance of thunderstorms, along
with MVFR ceilings/visibilities possible on Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...Hickman