Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
751 FXUS62 KMLB 031942 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 342 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 337 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Current-Saturday... The east coast sea breeze has formed along the coast and is beginning to push inland this afternoon. The KMLB radar shows a few showers ongoing across the Atlantic, mainly in the Treasure Coast waters, with some of this activity pushing onshore along the Treasure Coast. These showers are moving westward around 5- 10 mph. Temperatures as of 2 PM are in the low to mid 80s with easterly winds of 10-12 mph with gusts up to 20 mph behind the sea breeze. While overall convection will be limited this afternoon due to the drier air (forecast PW values ranging from 1.0-1.1") continuing to filter across the area, isolated showers (PoP 15 percent) will be possible across the far western interior where the sea breeze collision is forecast to occur. Lightning storm development will be prevented by the substantial dry air in the upper and mid levels, causing any convection that forms to be fairly shallow topped. Afternoon highs today will be in the mid 80s along the coast, and upper 80s to low 90s across the interior. Tonight, easterly winds will become light with mostly dry conditions prevailing. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 60s under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Saturday, the high pressure ridge will continue to dominate the region, with onshore flow persisting. Much like the last several days, the east coast sea breeze will once again form in the afternoon and push inland. Winds will increase to 10-12 mph behind the sea breeze, with gusts up to 20 mph possible. The sea breeze collision is forecast to occur in the western interior once again. Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms will be possible in the afternoon, with the highest PoPs (30 percent) occurring across the western interior. The main threats with any storms will be lightning strikes, gusty winds, and brief downpours. Otherwise, expect dry conditions. Temperatures will be warm once again, with afternoon highs in the mid 80s along the coast, and upper 80s to low 90s across the interior. Sunday-Monday...High pressure along the Atlantic seaboard is pushed offshore as a surface boundary moves across the eastern CONUS. Locally, light southeast winds back east each afternoon with the development of the east coast sea breeze, and a sea breeze collision is favored on the western side of the peninsula. Model sounding profiles suggest enough moisture between 850-700 mb to support isolated showers as the sea breeze boundary moves inland, becoming scattered in vicinity of the collision late in the afternoon. Modest moisture will support PoPs between 20-40 percent Sunday. Uncertainty exists in precip coverage on Monday due to model disagreements in available moisture, and the current forecast calls for 15-30 percent PoP. Dry air above 700mb will limit updraft growth and storm intensity. Occasional lightning strikes will be possible along the sea breeze collision late each afternoon. Above normal temperatures are forecast with highs ranging the mid 80s along the coast and upper 80s/ low 90s across the interior. Low temperatures widely range the mid to upper 60s. Tuesday-Thursday...Hot and dry conditions build as a 500mb ridge extends eastward across the Florida peninsula. Temperatures remain above normal, warming through the period. Coastal temperatures in the mid to upper 80s Tuesday, reach into the upper 80s/ low 90s by Thursday. Following a similar trend, interior highs ranging the low 90s climb into the mid 90s through mid week. The best chance for any precip looks to be Tuesday (~20%). Otherwise, the forecast remains dry. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 337 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 VFR conditions through the TAF period. Easterly winds increasing to 10-12 KT this afternoon behind the sea breeze, with gusts up to 20 KT possible. Isolated showers will be possible this afternoon across the interior, mainly around LEE. However, confidence is not high enough to include VCSH at this time. But will monitor and amend as necessary. Winds will then become light overnight before increasing to back to 10-12KT on Saturday behind the sea breeze. Included VCSH for MCO starting at 18Z Saturday for the isolated to scattered showers that will form along the sea breeze and the collision later in the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 337 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Current-Saturday... Isolated showers are ongoing across the Treasure Coast waters this afternoon. These showers are moving westward around 5-10 KT. High pressure will continue to dominate the local area through the period. Onshore flow will persist, with speeds generally around 10 KT before increasing to 10-15 KT with the formation of the east coast sea breeze each afternoon. Winds will then decrease to 5-10 KT overnight. Seas 2-3ft. Isolated showers and storms will be possible Saturday. Sunday-Wednesday...Favorable boating conditions are forecast as high pressure remains in control. Southeast winds around 10-15 kts shift southward Tuesday night. An east coast sea breeze is forecast to develop each afternoon, backing winds eastward near the coast. Seas of 2-3 ft persist through the period. Isolated showers and lightning storms will be possible Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, drying into mid week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 337 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 (Modified Previous Discussion) Drier conditions are forecast next week, as min RH once again falls to around 35% for much of the area by mid-week. Isolated lightning storms will be possible this weekend into Monday, with isolated to scattered showers. However, widespread wetting rainfall is not forecast through the next 7 days, so further fuel drying is expected. Temperatures will climb well above normal through the period, with highs increasing to as high as the mid to upper 90s next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 67 84 68 85 / 0 20 10 30 MCO 68 89 69 88 / 0 20 10 30 MLB 69 84 70 84 / 0 10 10 20 VRB 68 85 68 85 / 10 20 10 20 LEE 68 90 70 88 / 0 30 20 40 SFB 67 89 69 88 / 0 20 10 30 ORL 68 89 69 88 / 0 20 10 30 FPR 67 84 68 85 / 10 20 10 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Watson LONG TERM...Law AVIATION...Watson