577
FXUS63 KMPX 051815
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
115 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well-above normal temperatures Tuesday with highs near 80,
  then temperatures fall back to more seasonable levels through
  the rest of the week.

- Other than a few showers late this afternoon into this evening
  for central MN into northwest WI, dry conditions are expected
  area-wide into this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Temperatures have rebounded nicely thus far today after this
morning`s rather chilly lows down into the 30s area-wide under
extensive 1030mb high pressure from western Ontario province
south to the Missouri River Valley. This has allowed for mostly
sunny skies and temperatures rising into the lower 60s to lower
70s. Warm air advection will continue tonight as a warm front
approaches from the Dakotas and will cross MN/WI overnight.
Despite plenty of low level dry air in place, enough forcing
with meager moisture convergence ahead of the warm front may be
enough to squeeze out a few rain showers over central MN into
northwest WI this evening.

Temperatures will surge to well-above normal levels on Tuesday
with highs a couple/few degrees either side of 80 throughout the
WFO MPX coverage area. Breezy/gusty conditions are also expected
as strong LLJ aloft overnight will blend down to the surface due
to deep mixing profiles expected tomorrow. The associated cold
front will move across the region late Tuesday afternoon through
Tuesday evening, bringing an end to the late summer-like
conditions and allowing more seasonable temperatures to return
for the remainder of the week. Highs will remain in the mid 60s
to lower 70s throughout the week, outside of a small bump on
Saturday as another warm sector moves through the region,
followed by another cold front for Sunday.

After this evening, no precipitation is expected across the
coverage area until possibly late Sunday into Monday with the
weekend cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

VFR conditions expected throughout this duration with no
precipitation expected at any TAF site as any -SHRA are expected
to be north of all WFO MPX TAF sites. As the warm front moves
across the region overnight, strong LLJ with the front will
create sufficient vector difference with surface winds to
produce LLWS conditions for much of the evening-overnight hours
at all sites. After sunrise, deep mixing will blend the winds
toward the surface, making for breezy/gusty SW winds during the
day Tuesday. Mainly passing high clouds throughout this
duration, though this afternoon will have some pre-frontal mid-
level SCT-BKN coverage.

KMSP...Main timing of LLWS conditions will be after tonight`s
evening push but then continuing through the Tuesday morning
push. Otherwise, no additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G20-25 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind WNW 5-10 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts becoming SE.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...JPC