828
FXUS63 KMQT 151836
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
236 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Wind Advisory remains in effect for Northern Houghton and
  Keweenaw Counties through this evening for strong westerly
  winds producing wind gusts >45 mph.

- Gale Warnings remain in effect for the Upper Great Lakes
  through this evening. Westerly gusts 40-45 kts continue with a
  few Storm force gusts to 50 kts possible (up to 50% chance)
  near the Keweenaw Peninsula.

- Quieter weather with seasonable to slightly above normal
  temperatures is expected through much of the work week. The
  next shot at widespread rainfall returns late Friday through
  Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Afternoon GOES satellite reveals the dry slot of a deep mid-level in
northern Ontario trough draped across the UP and Lake Superior. At
the surface, strong pressure rises have been observed in the western
lake behind a departing low pressure system. This, and efficient
mixing into strong winds aloft, have been able to create sustained
winds 25-35 mph in the Keweenaw with 45-55 mph gusts measured at
CMX. A Windy Advisory for N Houghton and Keweenaw Counties remains
in effect through this evening. Tonight, winds slowly diminish as
the pressure gradient slackens with incoming high pressure. Under
mostly clear skies and decoupling winds from the boundary layer,
some patchy fog is possible across area of the interior. Temps fall
into the 40s with low 50s likely near the lakeshores and upper 30s
or the interior west and central.

Headed into the rest of the week, seasonable to slightly above
normal temperatures will be the rule under mainly zonal flow aloft.
Some weak shortwave action may touch off some light rain activity
late Wednesday into Thursday. Otherwise, the next best shot at more
widespread precipitation returns sometime in the Friday/Saturday
timeframe as ascent ramps up ahead of a lifting warm front. At this
time, most deterministic models suggest the bulk of the rain remains
south across WI and their ensembles counterparts / the NBM point
towards potentially meaningful rain (50% chance for >0.5") across
the south half of the UP.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Surface observations show flight conditions improving to VFR at UP
terminals this afternoon as a cold front departs to the east. Strong
west winds remain in place behind the front through this evening,
gusting to 25-35 kt at KIWD and KSAW and as high as 40-45 kt KCMX.
Winds will trend down and eventually diminish below 10 kt 00-03z
this evening as high pressure builds in from the west, yielding
clearing skies and VFR conditions through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Lake Superior: Strong pressure rises behind a departing low and
increased mixing under cold air advection are contributing to gusty
westerlies 35-45 kts across much of the lake, particularly the
northern lake around the Keweenaw. Expecting these conditions to
persist through the afternoon and early evening before settling down
as increasing surface high pressure works to slacken the area
pressure gradient. The Gale Warnings in place will ride through 00z
tonight (8 PM EDT local). Winds begin to settle below 15 kts tonight
and remain so through the majority of the week. Some active weather
may bring winds to 25 kts later this weekend.

Northern Green Bay and northwestern Lake Michigan: Breezy SW winds
15-25 kts turn westerly behind a cold front this afternoon while
diminishing below 15 kts. Light winds remain through much of the
work week. Active weather returning this weekend will likely bring
some local increases to the winds above 15 kts at times.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ001-003.

  Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     MIZ006-014.

Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning until 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ this afternoon for
     LSZ162-240.

  Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     LSZ241>248-250-251-263>267.

Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...CB
MARINE...BW